question for Al

I have read a few of your posts now regarding your opinion about ESP, and how it relates to poker. I dont know a tremendous amount about the subject, but generally agree that there is not much place for it at the card table. However Im interested to hear your thoughts about what is actually happening when a player goes on a rush. At times it does seem that when a player is hot he can do no wrong. Sometimes it gets to the point where it seems ridiculous that one player can repeatedly win pot after pot with marginal hands. What are your feelings on this? Do you think it is just simply that the other players in the game become afraid of this player because he is taking down so many pots, or is it just a lot of random luck that happens to us all from time to time. I think its an interesting topic, and since I see even the best of players loosen up there standards when on a rush I think its worth talking about.

[Al Schoonmaker]

"Playing the rush" is almost the same as "pressing" when the dice are hot, but there is one important difference. The dice and cards cannot be affected by what happened before this hand or roll, but the other players' reactions are immensely affected. Everybody, even super-skeptics like me, is afraid of being run over by a steam-roller. That's why Doyle Brunson says he plays the rush, that huge intimidation factor.
As Sklansky and others have repeatedly argued, all that the runs of dice or cards can tell you is what has already happened. They have no memory and no predictive value.
The fact that all of us get rushes is simply a statistical fact. I once won 5 hands in a row, and I would have won the sixth if I hadn't wimped out and folded on the flop. Since the table was full, that's ten to the fifth power, about 100,000 to one, or ten to the sixth power, about 1,000,000 to one. By chance, I won every hand at a showdown, but I probably could have bluffed on the seventh hand. It was great fun, but it means nothing at all.
Let's take craps because it is easier to track the data. Craps players are extremely oriented toward hot and cold dice. Yet there are studies that point out that the chances of a pass are exactly the same after five passes as they are after someone has sevened out. I don't mean the theoretical chances. I mean the actual observed occurrences. Many casinos know exactly what number hits on a roulette wheel. They want to make sure the wheel is balanced and fair because otherwise they will get killed. They have tracked tens of millions of spins, and the results say that all the numbers show up exactly as we would expect, regardless of what has happened immediately beforehand. That is, a casino could easily track how often red comes up after it has already come up five times. The answer is slightly less than 50% of the time.
Exactly the same principle applies to our game. My chances of having the best cards are exactly the same no matter what has happened recently. However, my chances of winning without the best hand go up enormously when I'm playing the rush aggressively.
Al

Hi Al,

It's interesting that you mentioned craps which used to be my game until I became smart [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img], learned to play poker and stick to poker since then. As far as I can recall, I don't think I've won more than 3 in a row in poker but had the experience of holding the dice for an hour and 10 minutes. Ironically, I don't believe in playing the rush but have some belief in ESP which I know you believe is pure bunk [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img] . When I used to play craps and there is a hot roll, there were times when I would have the uneasy feeling that a seven will come on the next roll, take off my place and odd bets and put a come out bet equal to my line bet. Lo and behold, seven comes and I'm the only "winner" on the table. Sometimes I hear derogatory comments but I just shrug my shoulders and say that I feel like the seven's time has come. Law of averages or ESP? Maybe. Hey, most gamblers are superstitious - especially crap shooters. I should know. But in poker, I don't believe in ESP nor playing the rush.

I'm looking forward to your ESP article in CP.

Good luck and stay well.

>>> As Sklansky and others have repeatedly argued, all that the runs of dice or cards can tell you is what has already happened. They have no memory and no predictive value. <<<

Sands, Las Vegas, early 1970's. Doctors' convention in town. I play the backline with a progression of 1-2-3-4-etc to infinity while winning. Dice are continuously cold and I am doing extremely well, but the frustrated doctors leave the table empty, leaving me by myself. I wait for the next group to descend upon the empty table as if they were finding the Holy Grail. "Oh look!! An empty dice table!" Happened about three times in a row.

>>> Craps players are extremely oriented toward hot and cold dice. Yet there are studies that point out that the chances of a pass are exactly the same after five passes as they are after someone has sevened out. I don't mean the theoretical chances. I mean the actual observed occurrences. <<<

1952, Monte Carlo Club, LV, dime dice table. I play the "Don't Come" so that I make "my own luck" and do not either buck or follow the rhythms of the Pass Line. My gaming budget is $20 a month, and my grubstake is not exhausted by the end of any month. I play approximately three hours every night. I see long streaks by the Pass Line players. I believe in the power of the mass mind to affect the dice favorably. However, if the stakes are too high, the players begin to be distracted by the amount of money at risk, and the mass-mind power begins to fail. I wrote a letter to the Editor of Life magazine as it was in the 'Fifties, in answer to an article on the power of the mind over dice. I said that it worked as long as (1) the bets did not involve too much money so as to worry about the risk; (2) the bets were not too little as to make playing the system boring. Sometimes I try to make my mind affect the seventh-street card at Stud, but it doesn't work. (smile) What I have discovered at Stud, is that if I let out a joyous hoop when an ace falls on my board cards, everybody in the pot will fold. heh heh [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img]

Jack

The rush is all about table image. If you win a few more pots than normal players are AFRAID of you. You as the player take advantage of this new image and win a few more pots that you should not have won if you were not on a rush.Eventually the other players will regain ther composure, realizing that your rush is over the game returns to normal. SO PLAY THE RUSH>

[Jedi Poker]

There really are three types of rushes. First is the "card rush". This is when your cards just happen to be running good for you. Your favorites are holding up, your +EV draws are getting there, even your -EV draws are getting there giving you "good beats" that leave your opponents shaking their heads and muttering to themselves. Card rushes are purely a result of good luck and are, therefore, beyond your control.

The second kind of rush is the "image rush". Usually triggered by a major "good beat" or a card rush in your favor, the image rush is when your opponents act out their (often subconscious) beliefs that "When a person gets lucky, he will continue to be lucky" or "Luck runs in streaks". When this happens, they will tend to tighten up and will give you the license to steal. You should then open up by temporarily going into loose-aggressive mode in order to attempt to run over the table. This of course requires certain skills. The skill to intuitively notice if your opponents have indeed clamped up. The skill to competently play at a higher more maniacal gear. The skill to notice when to shift back to solid play mode. The "image rush" is different from the card rush in that it is within your control. In fact, I have been able to manufacture it during those few occassions when I was fortunate enough to find a live no-limit ring game. I've also been able to manufacture it when I had the large stack in a tournament or satellite and therefore had the Gap Concept widen in my favor.

The third type of rush is what I call the "Gold Rush". This is when you're having a tremendous card rush, and have been perceptive and skillful enough to compound it with aggressive (but controlled) "image rush" play. This is poker heaven.

[DPCondit]

Hi Jedi,

This is a very good post.

This is why a good, perceptive, and highly creative, yet controlled player can bust out the whole table with a really good run of cards, and the "average joe" might book a sizable win, but nowhere near as much. Of course, the true maniac might even book a bigger win, but he will undoubtedly give it all away in short order, whereas someone who understands these concepts and become a temporary maniac (when called for), and knows how to execute, yet knows when to quickly pull in the reins, shall take the money home and keep it.

Keep up the good work,
Don