How to tell if I've been unlucky, or I s*ck? (warning: long)

[bostondave]

Hello all,

I'm writing this post in frustration. I haven't been playing O/8 very long (about a year), but I've always felt that I was above the level where I've been playing. I was a constant winner from the beginning at the micro limits online, and I've moved up to 3/6 (is that still micro) successfully. The past three weeks, though, have been atrocious. I've burned through several buy-ins, and can't figure out if it's just Mother Variance come home to roost, or if maybe I was just lucky to be winning before. It seems like every A23 hits a flop of TTJ, and every AAQQss hits a flop of 2 5 9 rainbow. I'm getting beat by people who had fewer than 4 outs more than I ever have before. And it's not that I'm moving into tougher games. If anything, they're looser and no less passive than the lower limits were.

After each successive session, I've gone back into PTO to review my play. I'm consistently around 22-25% VP$IP, but I have low aggression factors (I think subconciously, I'm afraid to put money in the pot w/out having it locked up). It seems like if I lose $100 in a session, I can always find two $50 pots where I was better than a 90% favorite going into the river, and wound up losing...and I can never find any that are the other way around.

Believe it or not, this isn't just a rant based in frustration. I have two specific questions, and one more general. I should state up front that I've read Zee's book (3 times so far), as well as Winning Omaha/8 by Tenner/Krieger (twice). I don't *think* I'm a fish, but I could be completely wrong. Anyways, the questions are:

1. If you flop top set on a disconnected rainbow board, how do you play it? Let's say there's 1 low card on the board. How about 2? I've been playing this aggressively to try to push out draws, but it seems to be backfiring on me...is this a leak I need to plug? I know a set is nothing but a drawing hand in O/8, but if there's nothing else out there, how do you play it?

2. How about the same situation with a flopped straight? I seem to have an uncanny ability to flop a straight, then watch a runner-runner flush hit, and have the river pair the board. And the runner-runner is never the suit of my redraw. And of course the paired board doesn't help either. It's really a sight to behold....

The general question is this: Is there anybody out there who would be interested in/willing to train a willing student who is ready to admit he needs some help? I know that some people will say "read the archives" and "read book x", but I've done that already. I think I need some help. I'm not exactly sure why anybody would want to help someone who could potentially take their money in the future (way, way in the future, because I'm not taking anybody's money at this point), but if you've always wanted to teach somebody, I'm your guy [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Otherwise, I think it's back to the .25/.50 games until I get my confidence back.

hmph....just previewed my post. I seem to have convinced myself while writing it that I do, indeed, s*ck. Help!

[Mr_J]

It sounds like it could be bad luck. Yesterday I had a breakeven session where I had managed to drop 50bb (over around 400 hands). I was getting alot of good hands but the boards were terrible. Only reason I ended up even was catching a few big hands at the end of it. If I can drop 50bb so early on in my O8 career (3k hands), I think it's quite reasonable for someone who has played for a year to drop 75bb at some point.

If you are uncomfortable about the drop bankroll-wise, then drop down to a limit where you do feel comfortable. If it's just the run that worries you and not the impact on your bankroll, then maybe you should just battle it out.

[gergery]

Post the last 3 hands you had where you felt your decisions were the toughest.

[Ironman]

Boston,

With respect to your specific question on the flopped set, I think I would continue to play that strong. Especially if I had some low cards to go along with it....even if they are bad low cards. With only 1 low card flopped and a raiser, the players at that level would be reluctant to chase a low runner runner draw.

If a stubborn A 2 3 decides to stick around, he can still be counterfitted and occasionally he will back into a flush. Not much you can do about it.

Good luck,

Looking forward to seeing those hands.

Dave

By the way, I had a great time running the marathon a few weeks ago up in your neck of the woods (I'm assuming you live in Boston.) [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[HajiShirazu]

[ QUOTE ]
(I think subconciously, I'm afraid to put money in the pot w/out having it locked up).

[/ QUOTE ]
I am not an expert at this game but this is almost certainly your problem, when I look at the most common mistakes of players who I think are probably semi-decent this comes up all the time, not being aggressive enough with big hands/draws/lows and not betting for value enough on the river.

[GooperMC]

Two suggestions:

1) Start posting hands here. This is a very good place to figure out how well you are playing as well as fine tune your game if you are not playing optimally.

2) I would definitely drop down some limits. It will help your confidence and you won’t sweat the suck outs nearly as badly.

For both of the hand questions I would play fast. Yes top set / made str8 are vulnerable but if would be very unlikely that you wouldn’t be +EV on putting as much money into the pot as you can. I would continue playing fast until I didn’t hold the nuts any more or a low hit. At that point I would check-call.

[bostondave]

Thanks to everybody who replied. I think I'm going to take a few days off to cool off a bit, and then I'll start posting some hand histories. I've had problems using the hand history converters with O/8, though...is there a link to one that works?

Also, a question of etiquette: Should I post histories in a brand-new thread, or is it proper to do it here?

Ironman: congrats on the marathon...I get tired just watching that thing =)

[Trainwreck]

I just recently recovered from a HE slump, it happens.

If you think your play was GOOD, it probably WAS...

It's poker and swings are not optional, unfortunately.

I always reflect on my play and I can't say during my slump that I was FISHY.

A few hands I'd play differently the next time, but that is all part of the life long
struggle known as POKER.

I took almost 2 weeks away from playing, but still reading and studying.

Since playing online, are you taking copious notes on opponents?

Also, just watch some games at the level you were playing and take copious notes and compare play to yours...
What seems to be the consistently winning formula?

Made flop hands are typically at risk so yes you shouldn't back off betting until it looks bad for ya, you are on the other side drawing too quite often, do players who show down made hands on the flop back off?

>TW<

I no longer take personal checks... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[grandgnu]

It depends on the straight you flop, whether you should go crazy.

If you flop the nut straight, but the only other way for your hand to go is down, then your hand isn't so strong anymore.

It's very easy for your nuts to disappear on the turn or river. If you're up against only one or two opponents, your straight might still be good. If you're up against a full table, you might consider dumping it if the action gets too intense.

I can tell you some hands that have been crazy for me:

QUADS OVER QUADS: I hold 7/7 and the flop is 7/K/7. Me and this other guy are going nuts on the hand, the pot is frigging huge. A king on the river gives him the higher quads.

STRAIGHT FLUSH VS. QUADS: Luckily this one was in my favor. I flopped the straight flush (double cock-block belly-buster triple deluxe) and another guy caught quad 3's on the turn. He wasn't going anywhere.

HUGE DRAW VS. LUCKY MANIAC: This one guy at a $25 PL table is sitting on a few hundred, playing any hand like it's gold. I flop the nut low draw and nut flush draw. He has a Jack in his hand and one on the board. Turn is a Jack, river is a Jack, I don't complete any of my hands and he took all my money. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] (it was pot limit)

Sometimes variance is a real bitch, and you're just kicking yourself over your bad luck, etc. In this case, you're questioning your play. I think dropping down a limit to where you're comfortable with your bankroll isn't a bad idea. Get your head straight and go from there. Best of luck to ya (unless you're at my table)

[grandgnu]

Forgot to mention another situation as well that was frustrating as hell:

3-handed, there's only myself and one other player in the pot. I hold the 2nd nut low on the turn and the nut high. The river drops me down to the 2nd nut high and I'm still 2nd nut low. My opponent just happens to hold the high hand for both.

I couldn't believe it. We're 3-HANDED and there's only two of us in the pot, what are the chances I'm going to lose with both the 2nd nut hands? Ah well, that's poker.