Cyclical Luck

[Graham]

"EV = $1 + $1 + $1 + ...

This goes on infinitely. That EV looks like summing to infinite $$$."

Looks infinite if we sum these occurrences. But we only play the game once, don't we, not an infinite number of times. We only get one of them, so we're back to $0.99, aren't we?

G

[Cyrus]

"Looks infinite if we sum these occurrences. But we only play the game once, don't we, not an infinite number of times. We only get one of them, so we're back to $0.99, aren't we?"

No, I already said I will flip it "until kingdom come"!

Suppose I offer you to flip the coin only 3 times in a row -- as long as it comes up Heads. You'd still double your money for each consecutive Heads, starting with $2, etc. And of course you lose nothing. Your EV would be

EV = [(1/2)*$2] + [(1/4)*$4] + [(1/8)*$8] = $1+$1+$1 = $3

Similarly, if I'm ready to flip the coin 5 times in a row, as long as you get Heads, your EV is $5. For 10 flips, it's $10. And so on.

Next, I'm offering you to flip the coin as many times as it comes up Heads, without a limit. In other words, I'm ready to flip that coin infinite times. What's your EV?

[SoBeDude]

actually I don't think a cycletron will do it.

You need a heavy particle accelerator, like a proton synchrotron.

-Scott

[PseudoPserious]

$6.85.

I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that you'd be able to scrape together a $1048576 payout if I got very lucky, but I can't credit your cash reserve any higher than that.

Each $1 of payout up to $8192 is only worth $0.67 to me due to taxes. Payout dollars in excess of $8192 are only worth $0.62 because that'd bump me up a bracket.

So, I'm expecting to make a sweet sweet $.01.

Shoot, I'd probably pay $6.86, dropping my earn down to 0, just so I'd have a story to tell if I made any substantial cash.

We got a deal?
PP

[PseudoPserious]

Alright Bruce, I'll bite -- why isn't it the first roll?

PP

[Nottom]

Well if the EV for each flip is $1 then the EV for the game should be equal to the expected number of flips which is 2.

Granted this just doesn't sit right and my gut is telling me that the answer $4, but its been way too long since I've taken a lass on this sort of stuff.

[AmericanAirlines]

Hi SoBeDude,
Ah, but you get the idea. You *can* modify the nucleus of atoms with sufficient conditions.

So, lead to gold can happen.

Sincerely,
AA

[mostsmooth]

[ QUOTE ]
Call me crazy but if the coin isn't biased I would bet on tails and if I missed, double my bet for tails etc... until i couldn't bear the burden of the bet or I hit. Obviously you need a point to bail out at, money management, but all things considered I think it would be a good progressive bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
once upon a time i was about 22 years old, lost about $150 bucks gambling table games. decided i would go get $50 and play it on red 3 spins in a row, doubling each time to either win or go broke (i was young, forgive me).in my wisdom i decided also that i would wait for a red to come up before i started betting, in hopes to catch a streak. a red comes up, but i get cold feet and didnt bet. next one i say to myself. next spin is red, again i dont bet, cold feet. next spin red, i decide ok, im gonna do it. the table was packed, i went up to bet, and some dick practically knocked me over to get the last spot. oh well. so i watch this guy, bets $100 on black, red comes up. $200 black, red comes up. 4 or 5 hundred black, red comes up. he kept betting a few more spins and was up to betting $1000-$1200 a spin on black. all reds came up. he got destroyed as the wheel put up 21 reds in a row. i dont know if the doubling up concept is any good, but i do know you need big cash and rocks to keep up [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Copernicus]

If hes currently worth millions, he was probably once worth 10s of millions. I dont buy that anyone can make millions based on handicapping alone. I've known some very sophisticated computer modelers and data miners (before there was even a term "data mining") who studied both flats and harness extensively, and they didnt come close to breaking even.

Poker is a much less complex game than horse racing, and an expert can hold a huge edge, and can play far more hands then someone can bet races. How many of them could make a living with a 15-20% rake?

I dont doubt that hes a millionaire, but he has some other angle than handicapping. The best non-poker gambler and handicapper I ever met managed to eke out small profit at the harness races...he had that apparent mixture of left brained detailed knowledge plus a right brained holistic grasp.

The last time I ran into him, driving his Viper, I commented that horses must have been very good to him. He laughed and said no, he hasnt bet on a horse in 15 years...that sports betting was much easier, and you didnt face the exorbitant rake.

Similar to DS he started out as an actuarial student.

[DPCondit]

I didn't say he made it all from handicapping alone. He took horse racing profits and started a couple of restaraunts, and later bought real estate in Malibu. He happened to buy the real estate in the 1970s, and that is where he made the majority of his money. He started out with nothing, not tens of millions, and he lost money at the races for several years before he figured out what he was doing.

I don't know every detail of what he did, and I haven't talked to him in a few years, but I have seen him handicap horse races, and believe me, this guy had/has some kind of gift.

Don