Holding the Nuts?????????

[hotsause]

2 hands I was hoping to get others feedback on how they would have played the hands.

Hand #1
bought in the game for 1500 its a 5/5 NL. Ran it up to 5000, so i'm sitting w/5000. Dealt 9Ts on the button so i limp, small blind makes it 30 to go (this meant nothing, the small blind was a whale from the high roller room and sat w/20,000 and raised preflop on every hand) 3 callers and me so 5 total (pot is 150) flop is 78J - 2 spades - whale bets 30 3 callers and I make it 330 to go, whale makes it 1000 to go, the 3 players fold to me, how should I play this hand from here. I new I was ahead based on how he was playing, he very well could just have a flush draw thats how bad he was, anyhow i make it 5000 to go, is this the wrong move and if so why? other then he could have had 9t of spades, anyhow he had a set of 8's and filled up to win a 11,000 pot

Hand #2 happen last night, again a very wild game with a couple very high rollers, not poker players by any means. I have QTo one high roller makes it 25 pre-flop and 8 total people see the flop k-J-8 rainbow, terrible player bets 100 2 callers so i call with just 1 guy behind me, this game you were going to get paid big time if were able to make a hand, implied odds where very high. the guy behind me makes it 200 all there players call and i call so the pot is 1200 total turn is a A, first player comes out betting 500, next 2 guys fold, i'm setting with 2500 left, i raise to 2000 to go? again i can't see any reason why that would be a bad move but let me know, the guy behind me hesitates for 5 min. and goes all in for 3000, the intial better folds and i call, board is rainbow, guy shows kj and river is a k. I don't know if i should be playing these hands different keeping the pots smaller or is this what i want and just have terrible luck.

I realize the first hand i'm under a 2-1 favorite but isn't it still the right move and the second hand i think is a no brainer but just horrible luck but i that is the way i've been running lately.

[The4thFilm]

You went all in with the nuts, stop whining about your bad beats.

[Zag]

[ QUOTE ]
You went all in with the nuts, stop whining about your bad beats.

[/ QUOTE ]
While the whining is annoying [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img], there is a legitimate question in hand 1.

We did this analysis a while ago. If you can state for certain that:
1. Any hand that the maniac would call with on the flop, he would also call on the turn.
2. If the board pairs on the turn, you are sure that he would only bet it if he has the boat.

Then it is better just to call the flop reraise and look at the turn card. If it pairs the board, then you can fold to a bet and save $4000. If it doesn't, he is making a much bigger mistake, percentage-wise, calling you all-in on the turn than would have been making calling you all-in on the flop.

Again, it is important that you feel pretty sure you will still get all the money in on the turn if you still have the nuts, in all the cases where you would have gotten it in on the flop.

Also, it is important that he can't steal the pot from you by betting out on the turn. On the other hand, if he bluffs too often, then you might have an entirely different good reason for just calling the flop -- inducing a bluff continuation.

The downside of this approach is that the turn might kill your action, if a third spade falls, and that might even put you behind. How confidant are you that he wouldn't have made the flop reraise with a spade draw and a pair? This entire approach is useless if you can't get away from the hand when you are beaten by the turn card.

The bottom line is that it isn't "bad" to get all the money in when you are the favorite, which is what you did. What you did was clearly profitable. That doesn't meant that there isn't a better play that might turn out to be more profitable, but it isn't always clear that there is one.

[cockandbull]

hi zag,

Have you got the link for the analysis. This is something that i've been thinking about for a while.

Cheers

Harry

[turnipmonster]

here's an interesting situation that happened to me the other night. we are all deep, I have AcKc in SB:

flop is KQJ with a spade draw. I bet, UTG raises, LP cold calls and I call.

turn is a T. I check and UTG bets and we both call.

river is the Ts. I check, UTG bets, LP raises and I fold.

what do you think about my play on the turn?

--turnipmonster

[turkkito]

[ QUOTE ]

what do you think about my play on the turn?


[/ QUOTE ]
I like it, UTG propably had an ace and if he was on the spade draw he'd surely put you all-in there if you raised.

[hotsause]

Thats a interesting hand, on the turn i may have check raised a large amount to make the flush draws pay, problem is somebody could very likely get a free roll on you. I'm a very aggressive player so i probably would have check raised the turn a high amount and then if called be screwed with the river card. So what did they show down, utg KQ and the LP a boat????

[turnipmonster]

first bettor showed the nut flush and raiser showed a T, for trip tens(!?). what can I say, he seemed like an okay player until that hand.

I think my main point was if I get allin on the turn I am almost assuredly splitting and someone maybe very well be freerolling me (as would have been the case). so in that situation I think it's much better to wait until the river.

re: flush draws, I wasn't really worried about a flush draw without the A. the first bettor is unlikely to fire again on the turn with just a flush draw, because he is probably going to get raised by one of us and we were all pretty deep. the second player can call but he still has to worry about me checkraising big, which I had done several times in that session.

--turnipmonster

[Zag]

[ QUOTE ]
hi zag,

Have you got the link for the analysis. This is something that i've been thinking about for a while.

Cheers

Harry

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry. I spent a little while looking, but didn't find it. I would guess that it was mid-July to mid-August, but I could be way off. I flipped through posts by me from that period, but I wasn't exhaustive and I didn't find it.