Oh .. So I'm still running bad ..

[Thunda]

Been on a bit of a bad run this last 4 weeks but figured over the weekend that the green shoots of recovery where beginning to show .. then this happenned.

I'm at work and not got access to the hand histories so I can't tell you how the action went .. but I was just curious what odds of these two hands occurring the way they did .. I came up with a number myself but it was too scary to think about .. I must be wrong, mustn't I?

Hand 1

Me A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Opp J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Flop A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Turn T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
River K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

A nice runner runner 4 board Royal to beat me

But then .. within 5 hands

Me K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Opp 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Flop K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Turn 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
River 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

And now runner runner Quads

As i said .. I came up with my own number for this happenning this way ... scary it was too .. Anyone?

Also, does these two hands constitute a bad beat? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Thx

[EnderFFX]

Same odds on both, 2 miracle cards needed to make your hand 2nd best.

52 cards in the deck, - 3 on the flop, - 2 in your hand 47 cards left

(2*1)/(47*46) = 0.09% (good times eh?)

Someone check my math.

[Thunda]

Same formulae (just done a different way) that I used .. but it calculates out as 0.000925069% and not just the 0.09% you said .. those two extra 0's make a helluva difference!! circa 11-1 to circa 1081-1.

So am I right in saying that for me to be hit by those same odds in those two hands (actually successive hands I played) that its ..

0.000925069 x 0.000925069 = 0.000000855753358190116%

Which is <<Gulp>> circa 1,168,561-1?????????

Thx