Folding the river for one bet when you improved...

[JrJordan]

Villain is fairly loose passive. Aggro numbers are all in the .8-1.0 region. He has called down with top pair before in position without a raise. Similarly, he has called down with AJ UI on a very coordinated board and 3-way flop action.

Hero has A6o

Preflop: Folds to Hero on CO who raises, Villain calls on button, blinds fold.

Flop: 792r

Hero bets, Villain calls

Turn: T

Hero bets, Villain calls

River: A (no flushes possible)

Hero bets, Villain raises, Hero calls.


The turn bet could be good or bad. I'm not getting raised unless he's already hit a flush or 2pair vs. me, so it's an easy fold if raised. Likewise the small bit of folding equity combined with my potential 7 outer makes this fairly reasonable right? I think the other option is just check fold since I don't have odds alone. I could be swung the other way in this case.

A possible leak I've noticed as of late. It is much more difficult for me to lay down a hand such as this for one more BB because my hand just improved so much. On the flipside, had I flopped the A and been value betting to the river I'd feel much more confident about folding to a river raise. Certainly the flop texture makes it less likely in the second scenario that villain is making a stab at the pot because you've represented an A the entire time. However, against the type of opponent who only cares what his two cards are (such as the villain in this case), his river raise means exactly the same thing in both scenarios... "I beat top pair". Anyone else have thoughts on this situation?

[spydog]

Raising A6o from the CO should be saved for a game where the button will fold often preflop. Otherwise you put yourself in this awkward position with mediocre-crap hands against a loose-passive.

As far as the hand goes, bet against a loose-passive when you have a hand, otherwise check. The flop bet probably has enough fold equity, so it's OK. I just check the turn. If he's LP then you will get a free card often. If he bets, calculate your odds on a call. If they are OK, then call. Otherwise, fold. You have the sucker end of the straight draw here, so I would be check-folding the turn. A loose passive doesn't raise this river with a worse hand. Chuck it. But, to reiterate, muck this hand preflop to avoid this situation. It's probably only profitable when you have a good chance of stealing the blinds.

[JrJordan]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising A6o from the CO should be saved for a game where the button will fold often preflop. Otherwise you put yourself in this awkward position with mediocre-crap hands against a loose-passive.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, villain had been getting out of the way fairly often so far when I open raised with legit hands. Blinds were especially weak so there was a decent chance to take this down preflop.

I agree with the turn analysis though. I'm still trying to balance when firing the second barrel is correct OOP and when to give up the pot.

[ghostface]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm still trying to balance when firing the second barrel is correct OOP and when to give up the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I spewed away my 1/2 6 max br doing this. Back to .5/1 full for a little while.

[wowacedude]

nice post.

[MAxx]

A6o in CO------> autoraise vs loose passive button, imo.