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#31
07-08-2005, 05:56 PM
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Re: How big of a moran is this kid? (WSOP Content)
[ QUOTE ]
Your equity in tournaments is usually significantly different than your chip count divided by total chips in play, (which is basically what you are proposing). For example: If you somehow won $5 in chips from everyone else playing in the WSOP on the first hand you would have about 38,300 in chips and everyone else would have 9,995. Now do you really think that your chance of getting in the money is 3.83 x that of everyone else? The answer is: "Of course not". From the second hand forward your advantage will only be slightly better than the other 5660 competitors. The additional chips you have worked so hard to collect early in the tournament have not improved your odds on a 1:1 basis. You still have to wade through 7 days of play and 5000 other competitors. Now we are at the tournament bubble and you have a single $100 chip sitting in front of you and you are on the button with 560 players left. If I offered you $500 for that chip would you take it? With your reasoning you definitely should since it is 5x the chips actual value. However you would be crazy to take that deal because by the time the blinds got to you 8 hands later someone else would bust out and you would make the money. [/ QUOTE ] You are incredibly wrong. First of all, your equity isn't determined by how likely you are to make the money, but your $EV. A lot of players make the money less than the average player, but have a much higher ROI. Anyways, somebody with 3x the chips of everyone else is much more likely to go further in the tournament, one hand can not eliminate him. For your second point, this is not on the bubble, its the first day. As the tournament goes on $EV and chipEV will slightly diverge, but it most certainly will not this early in a tournament. I'm guessing you're the type of player who would fold JJ early in a tournament if your opponent showed you AKo correct? 
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#33
07-08-2005, 06:08 PM
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Re: How big of a moran is this kid? (WSOP Content)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Who started this "do you see why?" crap? [/ QUOTE ] Sklansky. He says it in HEFAP. Maybe you should send him a PM. [/ QUOTE ] "Do you see why?" is a standard phrase in older mathematics texts. It means that the author knows he should either explain something more clearly or write an exercise to get the reader to work it through, but he can't be bothered. Sklansky thinks it is both big and clever to ape these lazy authors, because he's even lazier than they are, and he thinks he's a mathematician. It's a shame that someone who is so good at what he does, and so groundbreaking, has such a strong desire to be something else. The human condition sucks, don't it? Guy.
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#34
07-08-2005, 06:33 PM
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Re: How big of a moran is this kid? (WSOP Content)
[ QUOTE ]
i see why, but... my contempt in this thread is addressed at mebenhoe for going out of his way to call this player a moran, for calling him stupid as well, and indirectly calling a disagreeing poster retarded on a controversial topic that certainly does not contain enough information to determine whether the opinions of his actions are right or wrong... calling him a moran based on the information present is just simply idiotic. do you see why? [/ QUOTE ] well said. but did you know... mebenhoe is 20 years old, 6'5", and 195lbs., AND has won some track awards! given this startling information, (that he was kind enough to share with us in another thread,) he obviously should have carte blanche to act like this. do you see why?
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#35
07-08-2005, 07:06 PM
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Re: How big of a moran is this kid? (WSOP Content)
[ QUOTE ]
However you would be crazy to take that deal because by the time the blinds got to you 8 hands later someone else would bust out and you would make the money. [/ QUOTE ] with antes, you'd be gone too no?
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#36
07-08-2005, 07:06 PM
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Re: How big of a moran is this kid? (WSOP Content)
[ QUOTE ]
...It's a shame that someone who is so good at what he does, and so groundbreaking, has such a strong desire to be something else. The human condition sucks, don't it? Guy. [/ QUOTE ] Every big man wants to step outside and shoot the 3, and every point guard wants to post on the block so he can try to turn and dunk it. "A man's got to know his liimitations."
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#37
07-08-2005, 07:11 PM
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Re: How big of a moran is this kid? (WSOP Content)
[ QUOTE ]
i see why, but you do not see what i see. my contempt in this thread is addressed at mebenhoe for going out of his way to call this player a moran, for calling him stupid as well, and indirectly calling a disagreeing poster retarded on a controversial topic that certainly does not contain enough information to determine whether the opinions of his actions are right or wrong. yes it was probably correct for the player to take the 10k, i am not contesting that. you argue that you would take the deal to decrease variance despite it being a -ev proposition. that is perfectly fine! this kid could have a 10 million dollar bankroll, so calling him a moran based on the information present is just simply idiotic. do you see why? [/ QUOTE ] Point taken.
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