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Old 12-14-2005, 02:51 PM
TwoNiner TwoNiner is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 40
Default Re: just another overpair facing heat

I wouldn't raise the turn, but not because I couldn't fold to a three bet. You don't have the odds to call a 3 bet if raised and there is a good chance you will have to rationalize a river call with your overpair which really kills the odds to catch a miracle queen since you will be paying two bets often. Since I would fold to a three bet I rather just call down from here and give myself a small chance to catch the queen if he does have trips, and hope he bluffs the river if he's been on a draw. I really think you are beat here though. We always talk about small sample sizes with some pokertrack stats but it is much much more likley that this is a straightforward player with a .6 after 75 hands. I know there are players out there where folding to a turn bet is correct but I never manage to find it.
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