trips vs flush (or boat)? party 30/60

#1 08-17-2005, 12:25 AM

villian is unknown, I recently sat at this table. Fold or call the river? Raise the turn?

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 7 folds, BB (villain) calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
villain checks, Hero bets, villain raises, Hero 3-bets, villain caps, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
villain bets, Hero calls.

River: (8.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
villain bets, Hero ???.

TStoneMBD · #2 08-17-2005, 12:47 AM

definitely call the river. dont raise the turn.

DeeJ · #3 08-17-2005, 09:14 AM

nasty, but I can't give this up for 1 bet. You might increase your EV here by bluff raising the river, but this requires bravery [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] and $120.

I can see myself calling here and expecting to lose around 80% of the time. 20% of the time he'll have Ax no hearts which you may or may not beat depending on kicker, or TT/JJ/QQ/KK or something mediocre. But mostly a flush or boat.

#4 08-17-2005, 01:19 PM

In the actual hand I folded the river. I posted this hand because I felt that I had a little too many "good laydowns" and I think this is a close one.

I don't think MHIG here 20% of the time. Actually I think it is less than 10% (thus the fold). Given the board a river bet is not for value, a bare ace or pocket pair is almost sure to check and I lose against everything else.

I take it very seriously that both of your responses were to call, particularly since I think I've been laying down a little too much. Thanks for your help. Perhaps I've overestimated the average party 30-60 player. I'm more inclined to call now than before.

If anyone has something to add I'd love to hear it.

Thanks,
IronFly

Net Warrior · #5 08-17-2005, 07:41 PM

On average, BB will have a flush approx 37% (actually 36.363%) of the time. You’re getting 7-1 to call the River bet so you need to win 1 in 8 times to break even.

There are 6 non-heart better Aces, 9 FH Aces, and 9 other FH hands possible. That’s an additional 25 hands that can beat you.

There are 18 non-heart Ax hands that you beat. There are 24 pocket pairs that you beat but maybe BB would only play ½ of those in this fashion. So, 63% of the time you are not facing a flush and you are a 30 to 25 favorite. It looks like a call to me unless you were facing a total rock that wouldn’t bet a hand you could beat on the River. Since this BB is unknown, I think a call is best play.