I'm going to..

[mperich]

fold one pair on the river to a checkraise if i dont have a very specific read. I dont care what my kicker is.

-Mike

[Stack]

[ QUOTE ]
fold one pair on the river to a checkraise if i dont have a very specific read. I dont care what my kicker is.

-Mike

[/ QUOTE ]

Well if this is approved by most around here, it could very well become "mperich's Theorem" [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

But I'm surprised that you don't mention the size of the pot. It doesn't matter to you?

Also, are you talking about top pair?

[mungpo]

Good luck.

[mperich]

I mean top pair yeah, and sometimes overpairs, like if a 3flush got completed etc. The standard response on here is call, its only 1 more bet, but you are not good 1/5 times or 1/10 times. Maybe 1/15. I can just feel the chips leaking when i think about it =O

-Mike

[GetThere1Time]

Maybe at lower 6 max where players are more passive but 5/10+ there are just too many clowns trying to be fancy.

[mperich]

Well I just went through my database, and I counted 120 c/rs that could beat TPTK and 8 that couldnt. Although my sample size is biased because I filtered for players with 400 hands or more, so there are more good players than bad players I'm sure. I didnt wanna be here all night =P

Anyways, thats 15-1 (nice guess in OP [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]) Also, 3 of the 8 were by 1 player, who I think is one of the best 10/20'ers, and a 4th was from another known 2+2er. Also, note I didnt include my own stats because that would be a horrible bias hehe. I'd like to hear what others think.

-Mike

[wheelz]

I think you already know which players you should be calling river CRs from, and the ones who you know don't do it a lot... well they can beat TPTK 15:1.

I was worried that my tendency to fold to river raises so often might start to hurt me, but you posting that makes me feel a lot better [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[GetThere1Time]

I really don't think 15:1's too horrible when you take all factors into consideration.

I have no hard proof but lets say before the river your average pot is 7BB(I just tossed out a number), which might be a bit modest, your bet and his raise gives you 10:1 odds on calling the river c/r.

Take that and add in your own good situational reasoning even without a good read: using hand reading and board texture to determine if he could actually have the hand he's representing, the average player type for the game you're playing in, is he c/ring you or the field, etc. etc. I think good analysis of the situation bumps up your chances of winning.

Now I'm not saying that its clear to call every time or clear to fold everytime. My point is that it's close and shouldn't be an auto-muck.

[Stack]

I totally agree with your thoughts.

You can't automatically toss it. There are times that you really want to call against a clown. I find the op's finding intersting though. I'll look into my stats after I get some sleep.

[mperich]

Sorry, maybe my OP came off a little bit absolute. What I meant is I will be folding in this spot A LOT more than i have been, which up until now has been rarely. Of course there are always a lot of factors to be considered at the time. Basically I meant as a default play, if there is such a thing.

-Mike