New CBB betting system I've been fooling with: 21-5-1 so far.

[scalf]

hey; happy holidays naj:

funny about your "home team; non-top team" method;

there is no doubt that this year it has been fantastic; on another site; the person running the season-long cfb gow piks thread(s) also started giving college hoops plays: he essentially stated that he stayed away from top team games and tourney games; played home teams of less than dd spreads; and he had a fantastic spread..

college hoops have traditionally had a tremendous amount of home-cookin'; and some of this dates back to the old :band-bax" ; or small, crowded courts; where visiting teams and refs clearly were intimidated as the fans were right on em...

lol

now; the top teams generallly have mega-seating arenas; where this advantage has been diminished (sometimes; lol)

so really; early in the season; especially; where teams do not have as much experience; and playing smalller schools under the radar at home in more intimate settings:

hey; this should win a lotta cash

jmho

gr8 thinking as usual

happy holidays

gl

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[NajdorfDefense]

Scalfie! Where ya been, buddy? Steak and lobster so far this month, hope it continues!
Again, I just think the betting pub undervalues this advantage, plus you have the 'home-cookin' advantage as often seen at Dook, UConn, MichSt, Zona, etc.

best,

Naj

[NajdorfDefense]

correct, I will net Cinci out. I am still including OK St playing in Stillwater v UTenn, however.

Naj

Thanks for your insights!

Do you think the long-term EV would be much different if you bet all the same games on the moneyline?

Also, are the home favorites of 2.5 to 4.5 any more likely to cover than those favored under 2.5?