Signs of Downswings or bad play?

mxer7734 · #1 11-26-2005, 07:27 PM

I have been playing on Party .50/1 for a little over 30k hands and have a win rate of 3.2BB/100 hands.(If you are wondering why I am still at .50/1 it is because every single time I mix in 1/2 I get crushed, I know I will need to just play it out sometime but I would really like to get my play down to perfection first) I have yet to have any meaningful downswing, just a few little blips that last a session or two for about 60-70BB. Lately I have taken a huge number of bad beats, mostly today and yesterday, THIS IS NOT A BAD BEAT POST THOUGH! Hands like KK, QQ, JJ capped preflop 4 way have lost almost every single time. The hands that are winning are 79s, A4o, K9s, you get the gist. I have been trying my best to protect my hand in these large muli-way pots but basically no matter how many bets I get in these guys wont fold a flush draw or even a BDFD on the flop.

Here are some examples of hands from today:

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (4 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG (poster) raises, Button calls, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, Button calls, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (12 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, Button calls, SB folds.

River: (15 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, Button 3-bets, Hero folds, UTG caps, Button calls $0.25 (All-In).

Final Pot: 23.25 BB

Results in white below: 
Button has Jh 2d (three of a kind, twos).
UTG has Js Ks (flush, king high).
Outcome: UTG wins 23.25 BB. 

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises, MP3 calls, 3 folds, BB 3-bets, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, BB calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, MP3 calls, BB caps, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

River: (18.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, MP3 raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls, MP3 calls $1 (All-In).

Final Pot: 27.25 BB
MP3 had As5s for flush BB had AA (forgot to include results in converter and then couldnt find the HH from PT)

Now to my questions:

Does losing these large pots (20+BB's, I have lost 7 of them so far today 4-tabling for about 2 hours according to PT) with your premium hands indicate a downswing or am I just playing these hands poorly? I know you will probably just say to post hands but I have a number of times most of the posters agreed with my lines. I have reviewed them also after reading GSIH, and SSHE for the 3rd time. I know many of you have experienced nasty downwings in your career, what are some signs of them? Losing premium hands, losing marginal hands, tilting, whatever else. Any input on downswings would really be appreciated.

POKhER · #2 11-26-2005, 07:50 PM

just bad beats, Look like you played them fine(Although hand 2 i dont PFR 88)

On a side note, Mp3 in the last hand played his cards fine.

MicroBob · #3 11-26-2005, 07:52 PM

sometimes you win. sometimes you lose.

even if you have QQ in a 4-handed game...if everyone turned their cards face-up you would probably only be about a 35-40% chance of having the best hand at the end.

you almost seem like you expect to win every time you have a premium hand.
This is perhaps exaggerated when you receive a favorable flop.
You are already anticipating that the pot is yours (perhaps) and when it turns out that some guy hit his flush-draw you are having a tough dealing with the fact that you didn't win.

poker has variance. continue to read and learn. strive to play the hands correctly and the wins will work themselves out in the long-run.

the first hand you posted doesn't even really qualify as a bad-beat.

this is how winning players EVERYWHERE lose a lot of bets and go into bad down-swings.
you get a set, pump the crap out of it, and your opponent hits his flush-draw.

win-streaks are just the opposite.
you are always catching your flush-draws after you were the one who was forced to stick around while the other guy had a set and was pumping it up.
or you have the set, and the flush-draw never comes for the guy, but he also has top pair or it's a straight-flush draw, so he's good for some bets throughout the hand...and then falls short.

it happens.

and always remember that just because you played a hand mostly correctly does not entitle you to a win.

welcome to the world of downswings (I was down about 500BB's over a week-long stretch not too long ago).

mxer7734 · #4 11-26-2005, 07:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
(Although hand 2 i dont PFR 88)

[/ QUOTE ]

I usually dont either but I was first in from MP and I normally dont limp here, If I want to play any hand I will almost always raise first in from here, is this a leak? If someone limped in front of me I would just limp as well.

mxer7734 · #5 11-26-2005, 08:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
even if you have QQ in a 4-handed game...if everyone turned their cards face-up you would probably only be about a 35-40% chance of having the best hand at the end.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually against 3 opponents and myself QQ has a pot equity edge of about 53% and the other opponents split at 15% (assuming random hands).

Thanks for the reply, I guess I am expecting to win every time I have a premium hand. I never really though about it that way, that when I start with a premium hand, or end up with one on the flop, I'm almost always counting the chips as if they were in my stack already. One step I really need to take is to cut down on the number of tables I am playing, as 4-tabling while you are reading SSHE really isnt doing a thing because everything is so fastpaced im basically playing on auto-pilot and not applying the correct concepts at the right times.

ActionBob · #6 11-26-2005, 08:06 PM

No worries, your 88 raise was an absolute no-brainer.

-ActionBob

POKhER · #7 11-26-2005, 08:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
No worries, your 88 raise was an absolute no-brainer.

-ActionBob

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow.... [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] Anyone backing this statement?

Guthrie · #8 11-26-2005, 08:30 PM

I've been playing those same hands and getting beat the same way for 40K hands now at 1/2. Is it a never-ending downswing or do I suck at poker? The problem with posting hands here is that everyone wants to tell you what to do against TAGS, predictable players, or someone you have played 1,000 hands against on a single table and know how he plays. They talk about the range of hands your opponent might have and how his play might give you a clue what he has.

But, as you have discovered, bad players will play absolutely any ace, any pair, or any draw, regardless of the pot odds against them, and will call any bet until they make their hand on the river, and then they'll raise. You have no way of protecting your hand, and no way to put them on a hand so that you can determine a course of action. You just throw your money in the pot, they suck out and take it.

When someone comes up with a strategy to beat this, I'd love to hear it.

JonPKibble · #9 11-26-2005, 08:47 PM

There is no way to "beat" it except to keep playing as many hands as you can. The more suckouts there are, the more profitable the game is... with the cost of increased variance.

I've played 17,000 hands of .5/1 and am showing almost 4 BB/100. But after 8,000 hands of 1/2 I am showing 0.4 BB/100. All this means is that I need to keep playing more [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

SUfan5 · #10 11-26-2005, 10:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No worries, your 88 raise was an absolute no-brainer.

-ActionBob

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow.... [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] Anyone backing this statement?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I'll always open with 88 as well as probably 77.