Curiosity killed the cat, or did it?

[THATWACOKID]

Villian- 23/4 wtSD-28 w$SD-30

I haven't played much with villian, but these bets just looked like straight up bluffs. I figured if he was on a bluff a call would slow him down on the river, but when he bet so much on the river, it didn't look like a bet that wanted to be called. Too expensive to risk it? Comments?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

UTG ($749.01)
UTG+1 ($885.9)
MP1 ($538.55)
MP2 ($288.22)
MP3 ($538.46)
Hero ($468.2)
Button ($436.7)
SB ($411.5)
BB ($400)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $14</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) calls $12, BB calls $10.

Flop: ($42) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $34</font>, SB calls $34, BB folds.

Turn: ($110) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $85</font>, Hero calls $85.

River: ($280) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $250</font>, Hero calls $250.

Final Pot: $780

[flawless_victory]

WTF? explain what looks "bluffy" about those bets?

[THATWACOKID]

[ QUOTE ]
WTF? explain what looks "bluffy" about those bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, I am just trying to improve my game. I really don't think all this "wtf" stuff is necessary.

This guy is down a decent amount from what I have seen so far. Given the fact that he is a loser from what I have seen (800 hands), I didn't think he would play a set that fast, but I still had doubts.. I didn't think he would lead for that much with the nuts on the turn. I've played a lot of hands today, and this hand was towards the end of my very boring session so I wasn't thinking very clear. I admit they were some pretty loose calls, but I felt like I was ahead.

[Big_Jim]

Obviously, Villian is losing a lot of showdowns, but I'm not sure why you think these bets look like bluffs.

What's Villian's aggression factor on turn and river? Is he losing most of these pots because of bad calls or bad bets?

[THATWACOKID]

[ QUOTE ]
What's Villian's aggression factor on turn and river?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know the turn and river AF. His total is 3.8

[ QUOTE ]
Is he losing most of these pots because of bad calls or bad bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have a really strong read on him, but I have seen him make a couple of loose calls with top pair decent kicker. I haven't seen him make any big bluffs like this, but I obviously thought it was possible which is why I called. Is this just too expensive to assume? If so, do I fold the turn or river?

[Rotating Rabbit]

[ QUOTE ]
I haven't seen him make any big bluffs like this, but I obviously thought it was possible which is why I called.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's the problem. Its ALWAYS possible. Nature of the beast. We ALL fold to bluffs every day. Don't feel bad about folding to a good bluff, give your opponent credit and stop taking it personally.

You have to estimate the CHANCE its a bluff, then look at the pot odds. Instead of saying to yourself 'it could be a bluff', say 'it could be a bluff - what percentage of the time does villian bluff here?' - you NEED a number, even if its only a very rough estimate.

Calling hit pot sized bets turn and river would need his bluff % to be about 33% to be EV neutral, which is ridiculous for anything but a maniac. If you've never seen someone bluff big in a sesssion, 10% AT MOST is a good assumption. And he fired on turn AND river, so frankly its about 5% now. You would need his river bet to be joke sized to make it worthwhile on the reasoning 'he could be on a bluff'.

[THATWACOKID]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's the problem. Its ALWAYS possible. Nature of the beast. We ALL fold to bluffs every day. Don't feel bad about folding to a good bluff, give your opponent credit and stop taking it personally.

You have to estimate the CHANCE its a bluff, then look at the pot odds. Instead of saying to yourself 'it could be a bluff', say 'it could be a bluff - what percentage of the time does villian bluff here?' - you NEED a number, even if its only a very rough estimate.

Calling hit pot sized bets turn and river would need his bluff % to be about 33% to be EV neutral, which is ridiculous for anything but a maniac. If you've never seen someone bluff big in a sesssion, 10% AT MOST is a good assumption. And he fired on turn AND river, so frankly its about 5% now. You would need his river bet to be joke sized to make it worthwhile on the reasoning 'he could be on a bluff'.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the type of response I was looking for. Great advice. It turned out villian was bluffing, but it definitely didn't feel like a good call. I had been folding aces and kings left and right all day and I felt like I was folding them too much. As I clicked the call button it's almost like I was suprised that I won. Wow, that is bad. Thanks for your response RR.

[creedofhubris]

You fail to include the chances that villain is value betting a worse hand in your analysis. Jx diamonds, QQ-KK.

To me, this looks most like a missed diamond draw, to tell the truth. I do this sometimes when I'm not sure opponent has anything. Bad habit, it rarely works.

Most of the time they check-raise you when they've really got you by the short hairs.

[drexah]

IMO you played this hand very badly. The flop bet is fine, but when he just check/calls why would you suddenly put him on hand that beats you on a 2d7h8d board? Looks like an obvious flush draw or pair like 33-66. The turn bet looks like a steal, but even if he had a set (basically the only hand that realistically beats you) it sounds from your read on him he'd be more likely to check/raise you. In any case, i think turn raise is completely necessary here. At this point vs. any opponent im willing to get all of my money in, whether he pushes or just calls. The only way a raise wouldn't be right on the turn in a hand like this is if you KNOW he has nothing and will bet exactly like he did, or more, on the river.

[mgsimpleton]

i don't like it - people make huge bets with sets against overpairs because people can't lay down overpairs, not because they are bluffing. it hink he wanted to get called and fully expected to.