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#1
12-07-2002, 10:22 PM
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10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
This hand is from a juicy 10-20 game. Most hands are rasied before the flop and called in multiple places by people with, well, with two cards.
UTG limps, folded to me in MP. I raise with A [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] . Folded to the Button who calls. SB, BB, and UTG call. 5 of us see the flop for 2 bets each. SB is a total unknown. UTG plays very loose preflop, but pretty well post flop. I've only been at the table with him for an hour, but have seen him semi-bluff several times. BB and Button are very loose, very poor players. Flop: Q [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] Checked to me, I bet. Everyone calls. Turn: [Q [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]] 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] SB bets, BB calls. UTG raises. What's my play? Any thoughts are appreciated. 
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#2
12-07-2002, 10:43 PM
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Re: 10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
Fold ought to be considered. Three players have put chips in, including a raise. 97% chance of a five.
Sounds pessimistic. But consider this: with this lineup you have to consider a five.
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#3
12-07-2002, 10:52 PM
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Re: 10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
Based on your assessment of UTG, I'd 3-bet here and hope he picked up a flush draw to go with his queen. It sounds like the kind of game where any flush draws or queens will call two. Maybe even nines....
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#4
12-07-2002, 10:55 PM
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Re: 10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
Three players have put chips in, including a raise. 97% chance of a five.
I disagree, Mike. You don't think SB or BB are more likely to go for a checkraise if they have a five? UTG definitely could have a five, but based on the read he has on UTG, I think it's just as likely that he doesn't.
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#5
12-08-2002, 12:02 AM
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Re: 10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
Oof... I read that wrong the first time. Ummmm... that's a tough call (which is why I assume that you posted it). I think you have to fold here. SB and UTG have shown strength here. UTG could clearly have just picked up the flush draw, but he probably has quite a few outs to beat you even if you are ahead... and SB's bet looks like a 5 to me. I think you are drawing here, and you don't have outs to continue.
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#6
12-08-2002, 01:49 AM
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Re: 10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
Your thinking is pretty close to what mine was at the time. I don't like the idea of calling at all. I figured it was raise or fold time.
I think UTG could have a relatively wide range of hands here. Like you said, a flush draw to go with his Q, or even a flopped 2 pair (Q's and 9's) that he waited till the turn to raise. I was actually more worried about the SB suddenly coming to life and leading into the field on the turn.
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#7
12-08-2002, 01:52 AM
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Re: 10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
"with this lineup you have to consider a five"
That is true. The BB in this hand (who just called SB's turn bet) could literally have any two cards at any time. I don't think he has a 5 here though. I didn't include it in my original post, but I think he would have raised SB's bet with a 5. UTG also played loose enough to have a 5.
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#8
12-08-2002, 01:54 AM
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Re: 10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
I was just going to reply to your original post saying that I hated the idea of calling when you changed it. I agree that SB's bet looks like a 5, I'm glad I'm not the only one.
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#9
12-08-2002, 02:00 AM
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Re: 10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
Kindly ask the dealer if you can exchange your two aces for two queens. Then all is well.
PokerPrince
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