3rd try - Stud/8 - raising on 7th w/ lock?

[Vehn]

Here's another rather general question. I had a situation yesterday ($4/$8 stud/8 at canterbury) where I had a river decision to make that I wasn't sure about. Table was usually 3-4 way for $2 with no particularly good players - typical game for here heh.

I started with (A 4) 5, the player to my left brought it in for $2, 5 people called, I completed to $4 and everyone called. I made my 6-5 low on 5th, bet, and 2 players called with non-low boards. The boards on 6th street were something like this:

(x x) 6c 9c 9x 2x
(A 4) 5 6 3 J - Me
(x x) A K 4 4 rainbow

The player who was high, Dick for Andy B., an older, tight/passive/straightforward guy who seemingly permanently occupies seat 1 in this game and who plays with some degree of competency, now bets into me on 7th street; I bricked. With this particular opponent I'm 99% sure he did not outdraw my 6-5 low, he would not have played the hand the way he did. I'm almost 100% sure he filled or made a flush with an outside chance at trips and an extremely outside chance at a 6-4 low, but he's generally too timid to bet into me with a strong board for either of the latter and I of course beat him for low if he managed to stumbled into a 6 high straight. The other player, who is loose/passive/poor, most likely has 2 big pair before 7th. I'm also 90% sure that Dick will not jam (assuming the 3rd player coldcalls) with anything other than quads. I'm 90% sure the 3rd player will call 1 BB on the river with 2 big pair. In general should I raise the river here? What do I need to estimate the chance that the 3rd player will coldcall 2 bets (or raise himself of course) is to make raising +EV?

I chose to just call this time, the 3rd player called as well, Dick made a flush, I took the low, and the 3rd player mucked. *shrug*

[Andy B]

This is not true. Dick sometimes occupies seat 1 in $3/6 and $6/12 stud games. He's been known to occupy seat 1 in the $15/30 game when that goes as well.

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I think that Dick's most likely hand is a flush draw. He could have a low draw to beat you, but in order to do that, he has to have the Ace of clubs and two other clubs, Trey through Five, down. You can account for two Aces and three Fours. Is it possible to eliminate Dick's low shot on the basis of the cards you've seen? Then you can upgrade to 100% instead of 98% (I don't think you can be 99% otherwise). Well, with a three-card small flush on third, he might well have raised (he's not that passive, Chris). I also don't think he'd continue to draw to a just a low after catching consecutive Nines.

Anyway, how about the other guy? He could be going low as well, given your characterization. Still, it is highly likely that your hand is best, likely enough that you should raise if the other guy will call. That's kind of hard to say, but I lean towards raising. If you and Dick cap with the other guy in, you might make $20. If you go for the overcall, you will only make $4, unless the third man has made a hand and starts raising himself, in which case you weren't going to knock him out anyway. I would raise unless I sensed extreme weakness.

[Ray Zee]

on sixth street i would jam the pot.

if this this case was on the river then, if you think he will call two bets cold with two big pair raise, if not just call. in split games most times it pays to raise if your hand is obviously the only one going one way. this is because the other player doesnt have to fear your raise as a hand that may beat him, he only has to face the extra bets from the first guy.
if you think there is any reasonable chance you can knock out a hand going the other way and win it all then its a no-brainer. this time dick had a pair showing and you couldnt get it all. if he didnt he could be low as well and you might scoop, then a raise is mandantory.

[Lin Sherman]

Assuming that you have a lock for low and that Dick won't reraise, the probability of the third player cold-calling a raise has to be one half of the probability of his calling for one bet in order for a raise to be a break-even play. So for example, if you think his probability of calling for one bet is .9, then he would have to call a raise at least 45% of the time for you to break even or show a profit by raising. That is you're risking .9 x .5BB to win .45 x 1BB (or more).

Lin

[Fraubump]

but there is a chance you'll get to jam, which skews the odds way to the side of raising.