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  #1  
Old 11-18-2002, 05:02 AM
David Sklansky David Sklansky is offline
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Default Can Supertight Play Win?

Suppose the game is 15-30 with no rake or time charge. Your opponents play fair. You play expertly. But except for unraised pots in the blinds, you play only AA KK QQ or AK. You move from game to game so that they have no idea you are playing so tight. Would you win?
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Old 11-18-2002, 06:28 AM
BB King's BB King's is offline
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Default NO !!! * n/t *

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  #3  
Old 11-18-2002, 07:10 AM
Billy LTL Billy LTL is offline
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Default Re: Can Supertight Play Win?

Given that an eight hour session will cost him upwards of $600 in blinds, with no steal attempts, very limited positional legit open-raises, no real defense of his blinds, and no playing in family pots with lower pairs/suited connectors etc allowed, our expert is toast.

That's not factoring in the fact that his AA, KK, QQ and AK hands will sometimes:

A)lose on the turn or river
B)win pre-flop
C)win on the flop
D)split pots

Best of luck - Billy (LTL)
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Old 11-18-2002, 12:33 PM
marbles marbles is offline
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Default with the right table, yes.

I think this strategy would count on the number of flops you could see from the blinds. By definition, at an aggressive table, you're basically donating 1.5 small bets per orbit... But if you got to see 1 or 2 flops per orbit from the blinds, that expert play should take care of the rest.
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Old 11-18-2002, 01:14 PM
Clarkmeister Clarkmeister is offline
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Default Re: Can Supertight Play Win?

David,

Can we get some answers to your two threads from last week? I imagine its rather discouraging for those who put effort into answering these questions of yours to never receive the answers.

Thanks
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  #6  
Old 11-18-2002, 01:29 PM
J.A.Sucker J.A.Sucker is offline
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Default Re: Can Supertight Play Win?

Yes. 15-30 can be beaten with pretty straightforward play - pots get easily large enough for you to make profit playing only those hands. Not very fun, but still marginally profitable.
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  #7  
Old 11-18-2002, 01:39 PM
beetman beetman is offline
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Default Re: Can Supertight Play Win?

My guess is that the expert's EV with those hands might be somewhere in the ballpark of:

AA = $120
KK = $85
QQ = $65
AKs = $45
AKo = $35

These may be overly generous estimates, and I may be underestimating how well a "fair player" plays, but I wanted to err in favor of the expert since my intuition tells me there's no way he could win using this strategy.

For every 1326 hands, he'll be dealt the pairs 6 times, AKs 4 times, and AKo 12 times, so given my estimates, his EV ends up at about $1.67 per hand, or $16.70 per orbit.

Since he has to pay $25 in blinds per orbit, he needs to lose no more than $16.70 per orbit in the blinds just to break even, and I don't think this is possible considering the frequency that preflop raising occurs in a typical $15-30 game, which will often prevent him from seeing the flop. Plus we've already included the times he'll be dealt AA, KK, QQ, or AK in the blinds in our estimate of the $16.70 he'll earn per orbit.

Even if the expert played the blinds correctly preflop (defending them when prope and raising preflop with other strong hands), I would expect him to lose somewhere in the ballpark of $13 per orbit in the blinds ($8 in the BB and $5 in the SB) those times he wasn't dealt AA, KK, or QQ. The fact that he's not defending his blind will almost definitely prevent him from losing less than $3.70 more.

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Old 11-18-2002, 01:56 PM
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Default All day long . . .

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Old 11-18-2002, 02:01 PM
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Default Re: Can Supertight Play Win?

Hmmm, That's 68 hands(I believe)out of 2652, or about 1 hand out of 40. Each ten are going to cost you .75 big bets, so in that one hand you need to make up about 3 big bets. Of course, there is some value to your blinds also. I think its very close. I've read somewhere the Aces are worth about 4 big bets (and you will only have aces about 17 percent of the time you are playing), so IMO there is no way you can make up those three bets when you are only playing 1 out of 40 hands.

I think the key is how expertly you play those blinds. Many people who play a tight game don't play blinds well, because they are not used to playing such trash (myself included).

Still, I do not think it would be possible to have a good hourly rate...Probably put you somewhere near break-even.

-Huh?
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  #10  
Old 11-18-2002, 02:48 PM
Gabe Gabe is offline
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Default Re: Can Supertight Play Win?

Originally, I thought the answer would be yes. However, after adding it up using Poker Room stats:
1326 hands:
Blinds: -$3315
AA: $71.5x6=$429
KK: $50x6=$300
QQ: $37.2x6=$223.2
AK: $18x16=$288
Total for hands played: $1240.2
$2075 loss
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