Losing Streaks

[JohnWilliam]

Just how long can a losing streak last? One of my books says the worst case streak could last 1400 hours. Is this true? Any other guesses or explanations?

[Webster]

Depends on what you call a streak - I just went through a 110 Big Bet streak in 10 hours. Not even bad beats - just never hitting and looking at my hands very few mistakes.

My worst streak is 0-79 at the moment but a large number of 0-50s

[ropey]

[ QUOTE ]
One of my books says the worst case streak could last 1400 hours. Is this true?

[/ QUOTE ]
I know some players who have been on a losing streak for their entire career. Losing players will always be on a losing streak.

Personally, I think a losing streak that long is simply ludicrous.

-ropey

[pretender2k]

I have gone three weeks playing daily. The good news was I came back winning 3 times as much as I lost in the next two weeks. I'm not sure how many hands but I usually play 100 to 200 hands a day.

[RydenStoompala]

Only you know if it is really a losing streak or a number of losses strung together by the occassional wrong play. Then there's the agression or lack of agression that can hamper your ability to reverse a trend. That's when other players at thetable have you pegged as someone who is always trying to draw to the nuts and bet into you more than they would normally bet.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
Just how long can a losing streak last? One of my books says the worst case streak could last 1400 hours. Is this true? Any other guesses or explanations?

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe it is closer to 1350 hours--the authors were planning to correct that in the revised edition.

[Tosh]

I think a good player would never have a losing streak that long unless he was playing in a game that was above his ability.

[gamboolman]

All I play is microlimits online and low limit in the casino. I have had several -200 BB downswings online. It can and does happen quite regulary. Of course I do not play well so this is a factor. But at the microlimits the schooling effect of the chasers from hell is real and will cause these kinds of swings. Just keep remembering that you want them to play trash as you rebuy in with more ammo! The swings like this are why I have come to like to have 400 BB's for what ever micro limit I am playing in. As far as live B&M the players at low limits seem to chase more than online in a lot of places. It is just that the pace is so slow.

[MarkD]

The answer is:

It depends on your WR (win rate) and SD (standard deviation).

Now, this is explained often on the probability forum but I'll try to do it quick.

let
M = money earned total
t = time played total

then:
M = WR*t +/- (2.58*SD*sqrt(t)) for a 95% confidence interval

and if we set the first derivative of subtraction version of this equation wrt time equal to zero we will have a minimum (trust me on this, it's a calculus thing):

0 = WR - 2.58*1/2*(SD/sqrt(t))

solving for t yields:
t = 1.6641 * (sd/wr)^2

now, we sub this back into the original equation (which I will repeat):
M = WR*t - 2.58*sd*sqrt(t)
M = 1.6641*wr*(sd/wr)^2 - 2.58*sd* sqrt(1.6641*(sd/wr)^2)

which simplifies down to:
M = -1.6641 * sd^2 / wr

So... after all that let's take a typical solid player's numbers and say he wins 1 bb / hr with a SD of 10 bb / hr then the most he can expect to be down is
M = -166.41 big bets

Sigh... after all that I realize I didn't answer your question but I'm sure the answer is in there somewhere. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] And this does show you something, assuming my math is right.

[MarkD]

if we take the original equation:
M = WR*t - 2.58*sd*sqrt(t) and set this to 0 then we can solve for the time required to garuntee with a 95% certainty that a person is a winner

then:
t = 6.6564 * (sd/wr)^2

so for the fictitious winning player with SD = 10 and wr = 1 he lose for a period of:
t = 665.64 hours

if sd = 12 and wr = 1
t = 958.5216

and if we look at an online player playing multiple tables his numbers might be:
SD = 15 big bets / 100 hands
WR = 3 big bets / 100 hands
t = 166.41 * 100 hands
t = 16641
and if he gets 150 hands per hour at these 3 tables then
t = 110.94 hours.