What Qualifies As A Cold Streak For You?

[gamboolman]

100 BB downswings are common. 200 BB downswings are not rare. These are for microlimits. Of course when the swings are in the positive direction they don't seem to matter as much. Thats why the bankroll is important. I like to have around 500 BB's. But that is because I am not a good player and like to play too many hands, just like the rest of the fish.
Have fun and realize that the swings are normal.

[sumdumguy]

You've won 5% of your last 350 hands?
That's a cold streak?

My longest cold streak.... hmm... Last year!
About 265,000 hands in 10 handed holdem.
I saw, on average 21% of the flops (including blinds).
I won about 2.8% of total hands dealt (under 8,000 hands won)!
I know. I know. I played too loose and can't blame it all on bad luck (I was still a newbie!). But it was very very cold last year.

In the process of going through last year... I busted at least 20 mice (the computer store guy was wondering about me), threw 2 monitors and 1 computer out the window, and purposefully ran over a stray cat!

This year has been much better.
I discovered short-handed play!

[IlliniRyRy]

I decided to look about what people had to say about cold streaks since I'm sort of going through one right now. It's so bizarre how you can actually "see" your luck turn around one way or the other during a long enough time frame. I don't keep exact stats, but I started playing 3-6 on December 13th, and I've made about $6200 or so. That's a little less than 2 months, and I've probably played about 25-30 hours a week, so that's at least 200 hours, which is around $30/hr. The thing is, I haven't made ANY money in the last two weeks...before that, I was just making an absolute killing, and I think my hourly rate not including the last two weeks must have been something like $55. Since luck is random and has no memory, you tend to fool yourself by thinking, wow, I've made all this money and from this point on, I'm just as likely to continue doing well and making a considerable hourly rate. But the fact of the matter is, your luck WILL turn around and you'll start to get crap cards...to the point of bringing your hourly rate down to equilibrium. Pretty amazing how the numbers always seem to hold up. Not winning over all these latest hours is taking an extreme psychological toll on me, even though the drawdown in my account hasn't even surpassed 50 bets. I think sitting here and not making money is just as mentally painful as losing 100 BB, and probably just as unlucky.

[csuf_gambler]

im having sort of the same thing. last week on UB, i didnt have a winning session in 3 days. it was suck out after suck out, it was amazing. ended up down about 80BB(160$) at the 1/2, even when i droped down in limit i still kept getting sucked out. then my money finnally cleared thru at intercasino/caribbeansun and won some money there, made me feel a little better

[csuf_gambler]

sigh, and so it continues


Hand #940759-15430 at Hermanus ($.50/$1 Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 07/Feb/04 17:47:50

BEntenman is at seat 0 with $49.50.
Baby77845 is at seat 1 with $15.10.
kpup is at seat 2 with $16.35.
BigHunty is at seat 3 with $43.70.
wiggum82 is at seat 4 with $51.60.
sokosteve is at seat 5 with $10.30.
albaugh is at seat 6 with $30.20 (sitting out).
EEMPYPOKETS is at seat 7 with $40.05.
Bongoman is at seat 8 with $22.25.
mirko_crocop is at seat 9 with $49.
The button is at seat 5.

EEMPYPOKETS posts the small blind of $.25.
Bongoman posts the big blind of $.50.

BEntenman: -- --
Baby77845: -- --
kpup: -- --
BigHunty: -- --
wiggum82: -- --
sokosteve: -- --
EEMPYPOKETS: -- --
Bongoman: -- --
mirko_crocop: Kh Kd

Pre-flop:

mirko_crocop raises to $1. BEntenman folds.
Baby77845 calls. kpup folds. BigHunty folds.
wiggum82 folds. sokosteve calls. EEMPYPOKETS folds.
Bongoman folds.

Flop (board: Js Qh Qc):

mirko_crocop bets $.50. Baby77845 calls. sokosteve
calls.

Turn (board: Js Qh Qc Qs):

mirko_crocop bets $1. Baby77845 calls. sokosteve
calls.

River (board: Js Qh Qc Qs Ac):

mirko_crocop checks. Baby77845 bets $1. sokosteve
calls. mirko_crocop calls.



Showdown:

Baby77845 shows Ad Tc.
Baby77845 has Ad Qh Qc Qs Ac: full house, queens full of aces.
sokosteve mucks cards.
(sokosteve has 6h 6s.)
mirko_crocop mucks cards.
(mirko_crocop has Kh Kd.)


Hand #940759-15430 Summary:

$.50 is raked from a pot of $11.25.
Baby77845 wins $10.75 with full house, queens full of aces.




the very next hand, same idiot

Hand #940759-15431 at Hermanus ($.50/$1 Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 07/Feb/04 17:48:32

BEntenman is at seat 0 with $49.50.
Baby77845 is at seat 1 with $22.35.
kpup is at seat 2 with $16.35.
BigHunty is at seat 3 with $43.70.
wiggum82 is at seat 4 with $51.60.
sokosteve is at seat 5 with $6.80.
albaugh is at seat 6 with $30.20 (sitting out).
EEMPYPOKETS is at seat 7 with $39.80.
Bongoman is at seat 8 with $21.75.
mirko_crocop is at seat 9 with $45.50.
The button is at seat 7.

Bongoman posts the small blind of $.25.
mirko_crocop posts the big blind of $.50.

BEntenman: -- --
Baby77845: -- --
kpup: -- --
BigHunty: -- --
wiggum82: -- --
sokosteve: -- --
EEMPYPOKETS: -- --
Bongoman: -- --
mirko_crocop: Qd Ad

Pre-flop:

BEntenman folds. Baby77845 calls. kpup calls.
BigHunty folds. wiggum82 folds. sokosteve folds.
EEMPYPOKETS calls. Bongoman calls. mirko_crocop
checks.

Flop (board: 9d As Js):

Bongoman checks. mirko_crocop bets $.50. Baby77845
raises to $1. kpup calls. EEMPYPOKETS folds.
Bongoman folds. mirko_crocop calls.

Turn (board: 9d As Js Qs):

mirko_crocop bets $1. Baby77845 calls. kpup folds.


River (board: 9d As Js Qs 7s):

mirko_crocop checks. Baby77845 bets $1.
mirko_crocop calls.



Showdown:

Baby77845 shows Ac Ks.
Baby77845 has Ks As Js Qs 7s: flush, ace high.
mirko_crocop mucks cards.
(mirko_crocop has Qd Ad.)


Hand #940759-15431 Summary:

$.40 is raked from a pot of $9.50.
Baby77845 wins $9.10 with flush, ace high.
----------------------------------------------------------------

[csuf_gambler]

sigh too funny.



Hand #940701-16244 at Manilla ($.50/$1 Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 07/Feb/04 18:26:59

mnmpeanut is at seat 0 with $19.80.
mirko_crocop is at seat 1 with $44.80.
gunny326 is at seat 2 with $40.25.
Goober17 is at seat 3 with $14.60.
neilpen is at seat 4 with $21.25.
BEntenman is at seat 5 with $81.10.
Bozanga is at seat 6 with $16.15.
woodsbaker is at seat 7 with $27.95.
shoeboy is at seat 8 with $10.
wiggum82 is at seat 9 with $44.50.
The button is at seat 2.

Goober17 posts the small blind of $.25.
neilpen posts the big blind of $.50.

mnmpeanut: -- --
mirko_crocop: Qh Qs
gunny326: -- --
Goober17: -- --
neilpen: -- --
BEntenman: -- --
Bozanga: -- --
woodsbaker: -- --
wiggum82: -- --

Pre-flop:

BEntenman folds. Bozanga folds. woodsbaker folds.
wiggum82 folds. mnmpeanut folds. mirko_crocop
raises to $1. gunny326 folds. Goober17 calls.
neilpen calls.

Flop (board: Td Qd 7h):

Goober17 bets $.50. neilpen calls. mirko_crocop
raises to $1. Goober17 folds. neilpen calls.

Turn (board: Td Qd 7h Ah):

neilpen checks. mirko_crocop bets $1. neilpen
calls.

River (board: Td Qd 7h Ah Kd):

neilpen bets $1. mirko_crocop calls.



Showdown:

neilpen shows Js Ts.
neilpen has Js Ts Qd Ah Kd: straight, ace high.
mirko_crocop mucks cards.
(mirko_crocop has Qh Qs.)


Hand #940701-16244 Summary:

$.40 is raked from a pot of $9.50.
neilpen wins $9.10 with straight, ace high.

[csuf_gambler]

this is trully getting out of hand


Hand #940701-16256 at Manilla ($.50/$1 Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 07/Feb/04 18:36:30

mnmpeanut is at seat 0 with $17.20.
mirko_crocop is at seat 1 with $51.25.
gunny326 is at seat 2 with $37.70.
Goober17 is at seat 3 with $14.70.
neilpen is at seat 4 with $21.35.
BEntenman is at seat 5 with $75.10.
Bozanga is at seat 6 with $12.05.
woodsbaker is at seat 7 with $25.65.
doveroh is at seat 8 with $18.30.
wiggum82 is at seat 9 with $43.50 (sitting out).
The button is at seat 4.

BEntenman posts the small blind of $.25.
Bozanga posts the big blind of $.50.

mnmpeanut: -- --
mirko_crocop: Ah As
gunny326: -- --
Goober17: -- --
neilpen: -- --
BEntenman: -- --
Bozanga: -- --
woodsbaker: -- --
doveroh: -- --

Pre-flop:

woodsbaker folds. doveroh folds. mnmpeanut folds.
mirko_crocop raises to $1. gunny326 folds. Goober17
calls. neilpen folds. BEntenman folds. Bozanga
calls.

Flop (board: 8c 8h 6c):

Bozanga checks. mirko_crocop bets $.50. Goober17
calls. Bozanga folds.

Turn (board: 8c 8h 6c Th):

mirko_crocop bets $1. Goober17 calls.

River (board: 8c 8h 6c Th 7c):

mirko_crocop checks. Goober17 bets $1. mirko_crocop
calls.



Showdown:

Goober17 shows 9d 8d.
Goober17 has 9d 8d 6c Th 7c: straight, ten high.
mirko_crocop mucks cards.
(mirko_crocop has Ah As.)


Hand #940701-16256 Summary:

$.40 is raked from a pot of $8.25.
Goober17 wins $7.85 with straight, ten high.

[CrackerZack]

The 2nd hand is play poorly by both of you. Not raising AK is real dumb. You should check-raise the flop or turn, after hitting one of your 3 outs on the turn, you definitely should. It isn't even really a bad beat. Btw, bet the river and hand 1.

[Hambone]

I've had three 150BB down swings in three months, with one of those approaching 200BB. I've had nights where I've been up after winning 5% of my hands, and down after winning 9% of my hands.

It all depends on how well you limit your losses with bad hands, capitalize on your gains with great hands, hand how seldom you flop a great second best hand.

Personally, I wouldn't classify anything as a genuine cold streak until about 100BB. But just remember, if you're a winning player, that's all you can do: classify a streak in retrospect. After a 100BB, you've been running bad, but it has no bearing on how well you'll run in the future, unless you tilt. The past two weeks I grinded out a +50BB, pretty poor for how much I played. The past 4 days , I'm up almost 400BB, playing the same poker.

There are generally three ways you could have been running bad:
1. Not getting any playable hands.
2. Getting great hands and getting sucked out on.
3. Misplaying your great hands and getting sucked out on, and playing unplayable hands.

It's easy to classify number 1 when you've been seeing less than 18% of the flops at low limit, and winning less than 5% of your hands.

It's pretty easy to classify number 2 when you've been seeing a normal ammount of flops, and winning a decent percentage, but are still down. Or say you're winning less than 30% of your showdowns.

It gets easier and easier to classify number three as you play more hands and your streak continues.

After 150BB-200BB down swing, you should definitely step back and look at your game. AFter my last 150BB downswing I looked through poker tracker, and tossed KJ, JT, QJ, AT, and almost AJo out of my preflop arsenal (unless under special conditions like against week opp, on the button, first in). Now when I play 2-4, I see 20-24% of the flops, and when I play 3-6 I see 17-21% of the flops, and my type A down swings haven't been as severe.

Just stream of conciousness. Good luck, keep playing and it will turn around. Keep studying and it will turn around harder and for longer.

[Fitz]

100 big bets over the month of February last year approximately 85 playing hours.

Good luck,

Fitz