109 Party SnG - How bad is this call on the flop?

DblDownTrent · #1 08-22-2005, 01:07 PM

Yes it worked out here, but I had to think about it for a long time, and think folding is probably best. Thoughts on flop bet and/or call? Other than mucking preflop, how do you play this one on the flop. No real reads on the 2 villians in this hand.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) converter

UTG+1 (t865)
MP1 (t900)
MP2 (t820)
MP3 (t2605)
CO (t1265)
Button (t750)
Hero (t980)
BB (t275)
UTG (t1540)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls t50, 2 folds, MP2 calls t50, MP3 calls t50, 2 folds, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t250) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets t250, BB folds, UTG raises to t1490 (All-In), MP2 calls t770 (All-In), MP3 folds, Hero calls t680 (All-In).

Turn: (t3440) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players, 3 all-in)

River: (t3440) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players, 3 all-in)

Final Pot: t3440
Main Pot: t2560 (t2560), between MP2, Hero and UTG. > Pot won by Hero (t2560).
Pot 2: t320 (t320), between Hero and UTG. > Pot won by Hero (t320).
Pot 3: t560 (t560), returned to UTG.

Results in white below: 
Hero has 4c 3h (straight, five high).
UTG has 2c Ac (two pair, aces and twos).
MP2 has 5h 5s (three of a kind, fives).
Outcome: Hero wins t2880. UTG wins t560.

Sciolist · #2 08-22-2005, 01:19 PM

I'm pretty sure I'd be calling too. UTG doesn't really worry me unless I have evidence otherwise, the other player is more troublesome. Having said that, I guess sometimes you just have to bite the bullet. My view is that you need some kind of a handle on the second player to be looking to fold. He's going to call without a flush due to UTG's overbet too.

glengarry · #3 08-22-2005, 02:15 PM

I think it's a good call, very good using liberal assumptions. The main pot is 1860 and you have to pay 680 to call, so you need a 36% chance to justify the call, plus add on the benefit of having a large stack in a SNG. There are too many combinations of holdings to go through, but in general:

1) your best scenario: UTG has top pair/overpair with no flush draw (e.g. AKo), or a bluff, and MP has only a flush draw. What are the chances? You have no read on these players. I'd say 40-50% based on UTG's overbet. You'll probably win approx 55-60% in this scenario, so give yourself 30% at most, more conservatively 25%.

2) scenario that happened: let's say this is 20% likely (I think that's too high, because you have to figure at least one of them for one diamond). You'll win approx. 70% of these, so give yourself 14%

3) one of them already has a flush: I think at least 30% and you are drawing dead.

total: 39-44%. Worth it, plus the table image.

willmay3 · #4 08-22-2005, 02:29 PM

Dear All:

I disagree with the actions and the two recommendations mentioned for the following 3 reasons:

1. I don't like the bet on the flop. This seems like a GREAT check/raise opportunity. But, you want to see what happens in front of you. I would of waited to see if the 4th diamond hits on the turn or the board pairs before risking all my chips frankly. But, that's just me.

BTW, I'm not excited about the call preflop either, but that is a preference. I do not like playing a VERY marginal hand multi-way, out of position, even if I can get in on the discount.

2. Bob Ciaffone says that big bet poker is not about making superb calls with marginal hands. Rather, it is about extracting extra money from those who are drawing almost dead OR using scare cards to push better hands off of them IF it has a reasonable chance to happen. With two all ins in front of you, you have to think your hand is AT best, very susceptible to redraws of various kinds. You are either WAY behind or not that far ahead USUALLY. Why put your money in in that kind of situation? I would have folded after the second all in for this reason.

3. Lee Jones hammers home the point that SNG's are ALL about getting in the money. Big stack, smick stack, who cares? If you lay down on this one you still have plenty of chips, so why get into it? Get to 3rd place and then start making these kind of calls.

Just some thoughts,

Will

Moonsugar · #5 08-22-2005, 02:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Get to 3rd place and then start making these kind of calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Horrible strategy.

glengarry · #6 08-22-2005, 02:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Dear All:

I disagree with the actions and the two recommendations mentioned for the following 3 reasons:

1. I don't like the bet on the flop. This seems like a GREAT check/raise opportunity. But, you want to see what happens in front of you. I would of waited to see if the 4th diamond hits on the turn or the board pairs before risking all my chips frankly. But, that's just me.

3. Lee Jones hammers home the point that SNG's are ALL about getting in the money. Big stack, smick stack, who cares? If you lay down on this one you still have plenty of chips, so why get into it? Get to 3rd place and then start making these kind of calls.

Just some thoughts,

Will

[/ QUOTE ]

1. I disagree, you can't let a flush draw have a free card. You have to define your hand against that board and can't slowplay it. If it went check-check-check and a diamond came on the turn, you'd feel pretty dumb and hopeless. The $250 bet might sucker the flush draw into a bad play, because he's only getting 2-1 on the call and certainly shouldn't pick up any more chips if the 4th diamond falls.

3. Well, I think a big stack would go a long way towards making it into the money. All I'm saying is that the advantage of having a big stack in a short SNG is greater than in a MTT, so if the percentages say call or close to it, this factor ways in favor of making the call.

ldavidjm · #7 08-22-2005, 02:45 PM

Will, I don't know how long you've been reading this forum but the assumption that SNG's are all about getting in the money is extremely flawed. There's plenty of math available to back it up if you feel like searching for it, but overall its far better to try and take more firsts in exchange for a lower in the money percentage.

I think the call is pretty marginal overall. If you had more chips I would fold, but with the kind of odds you're getting I think the chance that you're up against Set/Two Pair and the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] makes me call this one.