Interesting 3-6 problem - Page 2

bad beetz · #11 12-20-2002, 01:39 PM

This pot is big.

I also think that the PFR is almost gaurenteed to bet if checked to.

A flop of A22 is much better than say, A26, the paired board allows the PFR's kicker to be slightly less worrysome, if he does, in fact, have an Ace.

I would check-raise the flop (there is a chance you could win it right there).

I would call a flop three bet, and then check/fold if unimproved.
On the turn, the heros is ahead of all except pocket aces and should show some aggression.

A 3/6 player who will raise the flop with a set of Aces is a rare player, I think that's unlikely

Vehn · #12 12-20-2002, 01:56 PM

Personally I think check calling the flop is terrible. What does that tell you? If you check-call the flop and its heads-up to the turn, do you fold to a bet? Of course not, and you'll wind up paying off a better ace the whole way, as you don't know anything. If you checkraise the flop and get 3-bet, you can safely fold on the turn most of the time and save yourself money, and I think its better than betting out as if someone coldcalls the checkraise you can pretty much narrow their hand down to Ax or a 2. Yes I realize that this is a "way ahead or way behind" situation but against most LL players you can save yourself some money here when behind rather than just ATM'ing it (check calling), and frequently people get married to their big pairs and will pay you off as well. Of the outs you listed only 3 give him the whole pot against AK, not worth chasing at 15-1.

David Ottosen · #13 12-20-2002, 04:29 PM

The pot is big, yes, but if you are up against the most probable hand AK, you have 3 outs to win and at most 4 to tie. The pot is not that big.

I wrote about this situation in a post a few months ago titled "The HEFAP Trap". The pot is big, you call the flop. The turn misses you and you are heads up and he only has to have KK some small percentage of the time, etc etc, you call down and much to your non surprise you are shown AK and have to sit there thinking to yourself "Boy I read all those books and posts and I'm still rolling over the pair of aces, 3 kicker. Why am I better than these guys again?"

bernie · #14 12-20-2002, 06:52 PM

you should be folding the turn if you miss. that's why youd be better than the other guys...you wouldnt go into the ,'well, maybe this had IS good' crap....you know by the flop bets that your likely behind, and you know what you need to hit to continue...in this case, either your kicker or a flush card...anything else, if there's a bet, youre folding. pretty simple

it's not a trap unless you trap yourself by finding a way to call when you should fold. and many players do this. then use the 'just in case' way of thinking. BS...you had a good read but altered it because you committed yourself to the pot on the turn. thus, ignoring your initial read. you also have b-door flush here dont ya? and KK isnt 3 betting a checkraised flop here. there's no draws hed be punishing. he'd likely be behind. maybe in a shorthanded game, but not in a full game. playing KK that way on a flop like this with action youre blowing alot of chips.

just some ideas...

b

bernie · #15 12-20-2002, 07:05 PM

preflop....call
flop....bet out or c/r
turn...if just called flop raise, id c/r here, if no one raises the flop, im betting out...
river, check call if a K or Q hits..

that said, if i c/r the turn here and get 3 bet, i know i have a little problem and AA could be very likely. only a maniac would 3 bet a turn c/r here with only AK. i could actually possibly lay it down here at this point, should it happen.

22 could be there, depending on where the PFR's position is...he may have raised LP with a small pkt pair. worth considering...

b

Dynasty · #16 12-20-2002, 07:39 PM

Checkraising the flop is a poor decision. What are you trying to accomplish?

Are you trying to drive out the players between you and the PFR (unknown pre-flop raiser) who are very likely to be drawing dead? What hands are you trying to fold out- medium pairs? suited connectors? offsuit big cards? The only hands actually worth putting two bet pressure on are 54, 53, and 43 which most low limit players won't fold if they played them in the first place.

Are you trying to gain information? Most low-limit players will freeze up to a check-raise even if they have a big Ace. They'll unneccessarily fear that you have a 2 and just call your flop check-raise and subsequent turn bet. If you think you are going to get 3-bet by AK, you're overestimating the aggessiveness of a typical unknown low-limit player.

Check-raising this flop looks like it is going to cost you the most money when you are behind and win you the least, due to few cold calls of your raise, when you are behind.

Dynasty · #17 12-20-2002, 07:41 PM

I want them all to fold, especially any hands with aces in them

Why do you want hands such as KQo, 88, or 65s to fold on this flop?

Do you think somebody who plays A7o is going to fold on a A22 flop?

Lin Sherman · #18 12-20-2002, 07:54 PM

Flop: bet. I'm not going to count on an UNKNOWN player to bet for me, so no check-raise here. I'll call the raise.

Turn: I'd check-raise. If he's got AA, 54, or a 2, well that's the way it goes sometime.

River: Depends on what happens after I check-raise the turn.

Lin

Clarkmeister · #19 12-20-2002, 08:12 PM

The more I think about this hand, the more I think check-calling is very clearly the correct play, and checkraising is by far the worst play.

"If you checkraise the flop and get 3-bet, you can safely fold on the turn"

First, no you can't (see below) and second, why not see the river for the same price?

Dynasty is correct in his posts detailing why checkraising is bad.

"Of the outs you listed, only 3 give you the whole pot vs AK, not worth chasing at 15-1"

Please elaborate on this. Maybe its just me, but I can still spend the money I win in split pots. The fact is that against a big ace, you have 3 outs to win, and 1.5 additional outs from the 3 chop cards. Against AQ, AJs you have even more outs to half the pot. Plus you may have the best hand. Plus you have a backdoor straight flush draw. 15-1 is an enourmous price on the flop.

As for the turn:

Take this hand for example. 6 people see the flop and you checkraise and only PFR is around and he 3-bets.

We can now assume:
PFR has an ace as one of his cards with a reasonable kicker.
None of the 4 people who folded have either an ace or a deuce.

Pretend the turn is a blank, say an 8.

Now you have 39 unknown cards. 3 of them give a win vs AK and 3 give a chop (for simplicity AA is cancelled by the times PFR has AQ, AJ, etc). 4.5 outs from the 36 remaining cards. You are making a misake folding at 8-1.

Clarkmeister · #20 12-20-2002, 08:18 PM

Dave, the pot IS that big.

Checkfolding is simply awful awful awful awful poker.

Your rationale of "the odds justify it but I'm not going to play bad and chase" is absolutely wrong. If they justify it, they justify it. Period. This is why people always complain that they can't beat very loose LL games with big pots. They try to "play good" and fold when they SHOULD be chasing.

See my response to Vehn for more thoughts on the pot size.

The only thing worse than checkraising is checkfolding. Ugh. At least betting out has some merit in that it saves you a half bet on the river when facing someone who will bet KK on the river.