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#11
12-08-2002, 01:58 PM
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Re: 10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
JTG51,
There is no easy answer to your dilmena. I think that your overpair is too strong to fold given the size of the pot (11.5 big bets). If the SB or UTG have a 5 you are indeed in trouble, but there are other hands that these players could hold. I think that there's a reasonable chance that the SB has a Q and bet the turn because he's afraid that it will get checked around. And based on your description of UTG he is just as likely to have a 5 as he is to be aggressively playing a draw or a Q (UTG may have raised hoping to get the hand heads-up and be planning on checking down the river if he fails to improve). 3-betting the turn is very tempting but what do you do if someone 4-bets (which UTG may do if he has a big draw like AhQh or the SB may do if he has a hand like A5s)? I would probably just call in this situation and fold if the SB 3-bets. -- Manzanita 
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#12
12-08-2002, 02:15 PM
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Re: 10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
I think you grit your teeth and call here, and wait and see how the action developes this round. Your assessment of UTG means you can't put him exactly on a hand, but he has a good one here regardless. He's loose enough pre-flop to have a five, but maybe good enough to make this play: he sees that the SB has picked up a flush draw, and thinks his hand (e.g.Q9, KQ)can beat everyone's except maybe yours (a good, tight? player), so he raises to move you out. This is what you hope for. He could also be value raising with 99 or 5, of course. So, if the other players back off after his raise, and the flush doesn't get there, your hand has a decent chance of being good. Remember, you're playing mostly weak opponents, your hand is pretty strong, and the pot is already large on 4th street. Good Luck.
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#13
12-08-2002, 10:56 PM
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Results
The board on the turn is: Q [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] .
The SB bet, BB called and UTG raised. It's my action. I decided to 3 bet, and take a free show down if I could. I thought there was a pretty good chance that I was ahead of UTG. I also thought there was a decent chance that SB had a 5, and it was unlikely that I'd get 4 bet. The button folded and the SB threw a monkey wrench in the plans by 4 betting. BB folded and UTG folded. I folded also. BB showed 99 for a flopped set and turned full house. It would have taken a few guesses for me to put him on that hand. UTG showed a 5 to his neighbor before he folded.
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#18
12-09-2002, 09:35 AM
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Re: 10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
I'd fold. When you figure your implied odds, you probably need at least a 20% chance of winning, and I don't think you have anywhere near that. SB may be a bad player, but that doesn't mean he can't have cards. He heard you raise before the flop and heard you bet the flop, and he's freely betting into you anyway. Then UTG, a reputedly good post-flop player who has also heard all these bets, is freely raising the SB who freely bet. Maybe one or the other is screwing around, but the chances that both have hands you can beat has to be pretty close to zero. The pot isn't anywhere near big enough for you to call hoping to catch an ace, so it looks from where I'm sitting that a fold is the percentage play.
Lin
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#19
12-09-2002, 12:33 PM
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Re: Results
call you are getting 18-1 + good implied odds if an ace hits the river, he will surely have you on a 5 not on pocket aces (may be ace-five) but that would still give you the action [img]/forums/images/icons/tongue.gif[/img]
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#20
12-09-2002, 01:52 PM
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Re: 10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
I'm defintely leaning towards agreeing with you. That's why I posted the hand. I don't necessarily think it's an easy decision, but I think I should have folded to the raise on the turn.
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