flopping the nuts and folding??

[bigmac366]

i recently read championship omaha by T.J. cloutier and Tom Mcevoy. in the sections on pot limit omaha, they said that in certain situations it is the correct play to fold the nuts on the flop. say you hold(QQxx) and the flop is Q J 2 with 2 diamonds. you have the best possible hand, but if an opponent has a wrap straight draw you are a underdog or even money at best. if another opponent has a flush draw to go with his wrap straight it gets even worse. the book advocates folding. any comments?

[nicky g]

The book is dumb if it really says that. Folding the nut trips in cash PLO can never be right. The time to fold the nuts is when you have a nut straight and it looks like someone else may have it with you and they or someone else has other outs. For example, imagine you have a bare 76 on a 5 8 9 flop with two spades and there is a bet and ar aise before you. Your hand can't improve, is probably shared by someone else and is very unlikely to remain the nuts on the river. The QQ is totally different because your hand cannot be shared by someone else and has a very good chance of improving even if someone does outdraw you.

[Cleveland Guy]

I don't think it's that dumb, but I think it's rare you would do this.

I was playing in an 8 person PLO game. and maybe I'm weak tight, but I folded 9987 (DS) when the flop game 983 - 2 of one suit that I didn't have any of.

I was in the cutoff - the pot had been raised by a MP, and called by 3 other players, including the BB. I have played with both of them before, and knew they were experienced and winning PLO low limit players.

On the Flop the BB opened for pot (~$12). The MP then re-raised Pot. At this point I was pretty sure I was up against the following (between the 2 of them)

A Nut Flush Draw(probably containing AA), and a good wrap with another high pair (Like QQ). So even though I was ahead on the flop, I didn't want to call that much with my 9s, as I had little change to improve. I knew a raise would be called by the second player at least as I only had about $55 at the table at the time. And I was pretty sure that the BB might call too if he had what I thought he had.

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
and maybe I'm weak tight, but I folded 9987 (DS) when the flop game 983 - 2 of one suit that I didn't have any of.


[/ QUOTE ]you are weak tight

[nicky g]

This is a terrible fold. Here is your nightmare scenario:

Twodimes

You still have by far the most equity. If the BB calls, all the better - most of the draws are already contested between the other two, so his money simply gives you better pot odds.

[LA_Price]

folding top set on a QJ2 board or in your 9987 example is just plain wrong. In your example you're getting 2:1 which just happens to be the chance that you'll fill up by the river in two cards(well a little less since you have one of your 8's). Oh and did i mention you have the best hand! Take a look at the ev on your nightmare scenario

pokenum -o 9c 9s 8h 7h - as ad 6d 2s - 7d td js qs -- 9d 8d 3c
Omaha Hi: 666 enumerated boards containing 3c 9d 8d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 9c 8h 7h 253 37.99 413 62.01 0 0.00 0.380
As 2s Ad 6d 164 24.62 502 75.38 0 0.00 0.246
Qs Js Td 7d 249 37.39 417 62.61 0 0.00 0.374

This is your absolute worst scenario and you still have the best equity. You can pass in this situation if you like but I for one will happily raise all in.

[J_V]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding the nut trips in cash PLO can never be right.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure you are wrong about this.

[Beavis68]

I don't remember TJ talking about folding trips, I though he was discussing a nut straight that had no outs to improve with a possible flush draw on the board.

With top set you can never be drawing dead.

Still, I think this is a rare occurance. I think the situation arises more in PLO8 where there is a low draw and a flush draw on the board. and you have some straight that can't improve much.

[Bet_to_Nguyen]

I think what ya'll wrote so far works fine for small stacks that you can get in on the flop. Even though the odds look good, there are better situations to get money in if the stacks are deep. I think T.J.'s main point was what will you do if one of them hits the money card on the turn and then you have a fat pot bet to call as the dog with one to come?

[tubbyspencer]

[ QUOTE ]
With top set you can never be drawing dead.


[/ QUOTE ]

Not exactly true. But close enough.