Post flop profit maximization. (Flush draw comes through)

[arkady]

I am actually skewing it towards hero. Here, I will make it more objective. But in reality this is fake too, because with CO raising and others calling leads me to believe that some outs are counterfeited and more than 1 person might have a piece.


Board: Jh 2d Qh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 38.5167 % [ 00.38 00.01 ] { 9h8h }
Hand 2: 12.8273 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 3: 12.8461 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 4: 22.8344 % [ 00.22 00.01 ] { TT-88, AKs-ATs, A8s-A6s, KQs-K7s, QJs-Q7s, JTs-J8s, T9s-T8s, AKo-A6o, KQo-K9o, QJo-Q9o, JTo-J8o, T9o-T8o, 98o }
Hand 5: 12.9754 % [ 00.12 00.01 ] { random }

[bunky9590]

I understand the whole equity thing, but A, isn't this an action flop if youve ever seen one? My bet can lead to an isoraise then Im staring at 9 high draw OOP, granted i have a bazzilion :1 odds to call but can I maximize $$ that way? Im never check raising that flop unless BB bets and they all call.

Nice to whack a hornets nest with a stick before you go to bed. Surprised at all the flop discussion cause Im still quite sure that is an easy check/call or check cold call situation.

Turn is just awesome.

I actually thought about the river once they all callled on the turn, MP was still in the hand, so thats what swayed the river bet into the river checkraise and Im quite sure the CO has a Q of some variety, and Im also quite sure MP would in fact bet.

Funny thing he folded. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Trix]

AK wont be there every time..

[Trix]

Value ?

If you lead, BB or UTG will come along often, pfr will hardly ever fold and the guy who coldcalled him will often have hit a flop like this. So it will often be 4-way, and hardly ever less than 3-way.

[Guido]

So true Trix, I would bet this flop too especially at 5/10. People don't fold on the flop for 1SB. Joe might prefer check-calling but I would bet this one.

Thanks,

Guido

[Felipe]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the flop, look at your position compared to the preflop raiser

What?!?! Why? Want to shut others out? Don't like money? Like calling raises with only a draw? Forgot the definition of a semi-bluff?

Please, somebody give me a damn good reason.

Thanks,
Joe Tall

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling raises with "only" a draw. It's quite a strong draw, and there are many players, plus there is a chance that the preflop raiser will raise a again, increasing your overall expectation. With this many players There is a pot equity edge, therefore bets and raises are in order here. Bet the flop, all will call, MP or CO raise, all call again. Now they've all invested 2 bets; that's good for a flush draw, plus a gutshot (albeit a slightly weak one)

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the flop, look at your position compared to the preflop raiser.

I dont like the FPS on the river, board pairs and you are trying to drive everyone out with a checkraise? Just bet out and hope a Queen raises you so you can 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]


I like that better

[Victor]

i fold preflop but i never hit flushes.

i would usually bet the river here unless i was positive that someone would bet (obvioulsy). so if villain is aggressive and a fearless value better then this is a pretty good play.

[arkady]

I like it G, i do. I dont like Josh's idea of leading the flop because a raise will isolate and be counter productive. For everyone suggesting to bet the flop into the raise, I will remind u that Bunky's hand has NO showdown value. None. The really interesting discussion is an overcall vs. a raise on the river.

Well the way I see it...you are guaranteed to get a call from a Q, CO most likely has it. So that is +1bb for sure.

UTG really looks like he is on a str8 draw and will not call 2 cold with anything worse, if he is on a busted draw he wont call even 1. He might pay off w/a J. So lets say he calls 1 bet 30% of the time, but 2 about 2% or in other words never.

MP, I have no idea what the hell he has. Or what that OOP river bet means, but I assume he is testing his J and will pay off to a raise a good portion of the time.

So if you raise, you will get an extra +2BB. If you call you will get an extra +1 bb 30% of the time.

Its a clear raise.

[helpmeout]

How will leading the flop isolate? You have 2 people to act after you before the preflop raiser bets.

The board is very drawy many people will hit that board and call 2 bets.

Being afraid of isolation is truely weak poker, 5/10 players arent folding hands like KJ KT AJ etc in this big pot.

You have a big draw in a big pot you want to bump it up.