#1
|
|||
|
|||
Mistake or bad beat?
This was at Party on the $25 N/L table. My stack was $38, his $33.10.
I’ve thought about this hand and I just don’t see how else I could have played it. Maybe going all in after the flop? I’m dealt KK in the cutoff. UTG calls UTG+1 raises to $4 (This was the 5th consecutive hand he raised with. I put him on high cards, trying to steal the pot) UTG+2 folds MP1 folds MP2 folds MP3 folds CO (me) raises to $9 I was hoping either to win the pot right there, or get heads up with UTG+1 Button folds SB folds BB folds UTG folds UTG+1 calls Flop comes Qh Tc 3c UTG+1 checks, I bet roughly half the pot $9. He calls. At this point I’m positive I am ahead in the hand. The turn is a 7h. He checks, I decide to go all-in. I wanted to make him pay for any type of flush or straight draw. My bet was $20, he called with $16, he’s all in as well. The river is Ad. He shows Ah Qd and takes the pot. I ran 100,000 simulations on Pokerwiz after the flop. My hand holds up 91% of the time. Was this a bad beat or did I make a mistake at some point? Is there a better alternative play? |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Mistake or bad beat?
Straight up bad beat. Think about it, if you had AQ, you probably would have played it in a similar fashion. Anytime you run odds through the computer, and it comes back with you being a favorite when all the money is in, you did the right thing regardless of the results of one time.
I honestly would have bet more on the flop (I get nutty at times) but I really doubt that would have changed this hand, you want him calling with AQ here. Lets say you 'knew' he had AQ (like he showed you or something), and you move in on the turn. And lets say you have ESP powers to make him call you, you would make him call right? Your this huge favorite. Don't doubt your play here, just muck, get your next hand, and break this guy. |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Mistake or bad beat?
You haven't read the thread about "pattern mapping" yet?
|
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Mistake or bad beat?
Yeah you definitely want this call. In the long run this is a sure profitable play.
By the way, instead of doing simulations using Pokerwiz, you can use twodimes.net to calculate the odds. It's immediate, and it gives exact probabilities (not simulated). |
|
|