200NL...I keep swearing I'll stop this...2 barrel bluff (or 3)

[FlyingStart]

You are valuebetting against lower PP?

[FlyingStart]

Raising with 22 and 66 UTG+1 full ring? I know some people do it, and I sometimes do similar things, but it's not really common.. which should make it harder for villan to believe hero. A raise from UTG+1 with any 9 is also unlikely (expect pocket nines, which isn't the case here).

I'm not saying it's bad, but I think a suspecious villain might call hero down here with a PP since the river bet is only 1/2 PSB

[rwanger]

UTG hasn't defined his hand at all, and yet the villian keeps calling.

This flop had NO draws on it, and the turn didn't pick up ANY new legit draws (why would he have 87 or two hearts)...

With this board, the villian has you beat. If he thought he was good on the turn, he is calling you on the river....why would the king scare him? The only way you might have pulled ahead on the river was if you had AhKh. In that case though, you probably should have checked behind the turn (unless the villian is one of those types who calls the flop a lot just to see if you'll fire again), again for the reason that he must have some sort of hand to call you on this flop.

He has a 9 or pocket 2's. Pocket 6's is also a possibility if you've been raising alot preflop and reliably continuation betting.

[pokerjoker]

I checked river and Villian showed TT. I still wonder if he would have folded river after calling $50 on turn if I pushed. I think he would have.

[rwanger]

[ QUOTE ]
I checked river and Villian showed TT. I still wonder if he would have folded river after calling $50 on turn if I pushed. I think he would have.

[/ QUOTE ]

Giving up was the right play. You can only bet $90 into $170...he's getting 3:1 to call where he has had an overpair the whole way.

If you're him, you should call too. You only have to be ahead 1/3 of the time.

[Big_Jim]

I didn't say it was a good bluff, just answering the question.

I think it's bad. River card didn't really change much.

[VarlosZ]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's bad. River card didn't really change much.

[/ QUOTE ]

River was the scariest card there is for any possible hand Villain might have (assuming he's very unlikely to have two hearts). As played, that river is a mandatory push. Villain is getting good odds so he is likely to call, but the bluff is also getting good odds (almost 2-1), and AQ (non-flush) is about the only plausible hand for Hero to have that Villain beats.

The only way this isn't a clear push is if Hero has shown down pre-flop raises out of position with PPs lower than 99 or hands like AJ, or if Villain is a known calling station.

[girgy44]

[ QUOTE ]
why would the king scare him? The only way you might have pulled ahead on the river was if you had AhKh.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or if he had AKo which he pretty much has. If the Q hits and he pushes do you say the only hand the villain can put you on is AhQh?

[rwanger]

[ QUOTE ]

Or if he had AKo which he pretty much has. If the Q hits and he pushes do you say the only hand the villain can put you on is AhQh?

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you always assume that your opponent as AK when he raises preflop, bets a rag flop, fires again on turn brick?

If this is you, and you have AK, do you push the river? Because (and of course this is easy for me to say because of the results) TT, JJ, and QQ are the only worse hands I see calling. I also wouldn't have put my opponent on any of those 3, since I assume that they usually raise preflop.

[VarlosZ]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you always assume that your opponent as AK when he raises preflop, bets a rag flop, fires again on turn brick?

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't matter if Villain puts hero on AK specifically. What's important is that, at this point, villain is only beating a bluff, and the most likely hand for Hero to be bluffing with just made a pair. TT and even JJ probably give up (or give up more often than 1 time in 3, anyway), as do lesser hands, and QQ generally raises preflop. The only question for Hero is, how often does Villain have a hand that beats AK? It can't be often, and if villain was super-slow-playing a boat or AA, or overpaying for a flush draw, then c'est la vie.