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#1
08-24-2005, 02:44 AM
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Naked A to flush on the river
PLO50 on Bodog, HU
I have $97, Villain has $48. Villain is passive with overpairs, minraises with the nuts, rarely slowplays anything, hasn't been chasing non-nut draws, can fold marginal hands. , Villains limps, I raise to $1.50 with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Villain calls, Flop is 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Not too shabby, I bet $3, Villain calls Turn 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] I bet $9, Villain calls River K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Now what? 
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#2
08-24-2005, 06:01 AM
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Re: Naked A to flush on the river
Based on your read of the player, he's not drawing purely to the flush, so I guess all I'd be worried about is if he had a draw to a higher straight and his hand also contained a couple of low/medium clubs. Might he have raised on the flop with such a hand?
If he was drawing to a higher straight or a full house, then he's missed, and is unlikely to call again. If he has a flush, then he'll probably call any bet you make. Is he capable of bluffing if you check? I think I check-call. I don't think it's worth betting since I don't think he'll call with anything that you can beat, unless he's seen you bluff here before, or bet out with, say, two-pair and he has a set. Calling any bet he might make depends on whether you think he's capable of bluffing in this situation. I guess betting out is only worthwhile if you think he'll lay down a non-nut flush. Personally, I don't think he would.
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#3
08-24-2005, 12:11 PM
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Re: Naked A to flush on the river
I'd also lead out for a pot sized bet, fold to a raise. It's possible that opponent 66xx or 45xx with a low club flush, and will lay down the winning hand. I wouldn't expect him to fold the 2nd nut Q high flush, but he might lay down a hand like 4c5s9c9s.
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#4
08-24-2005, 08:10 AM
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Re: Naked A to flush on the river
With your descs of the opponent and the fact that u have A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] i lead out with a pot bet. If the stacks was deeper it might go for a check-raise.
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#7
08-24-2005, 12:15 PM
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Re: Naked A to flush on the river
[ QUOTE ]
With your descs of the opponent and the fact that u have A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] i lead out with a pot bet. If the stacks was deeper it might go for a check-raise. [/ QUOTE ] Suicidal. You presume that he'll fold the non-nut flush. In a HU battle thats asking a lot.
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#8
08-24-2005, 01:26 PM
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Re: Naked A to flush on the river
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] With your descs of the opponent and the fact that u have A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] i lead out with a pot bet. If the stacks was deeper it might go for a check-raise. [/ QUOTE ] Suicidal. You presume that he'll fold the non-nut flush. In a HU battle thats asking a lot. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] ... hasn't been chasing non-nut draws, can fold marginal hands. [/ QUOTE ] I think there is good chance he will fold a medicore flush. He also might call with a set.
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#9
08-24-2005, 03:07 PM
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Re: Naked A to flush on the river
[ QUOTE ]
I think there is good chance he will fold a medicore flush. He also might call with a set. [/ QUOTE ] ???? If he cant fold a set here, why is he going to fold a K high flush? If you pot the river your bluff has to get him to fold the flush 50% of the time to be worthwhile. If you checkraise the bluff is going to be very expensive. And if he has a set and doesnt buy that you have a better hand, you are going to be in a very difficult situation when he reraises you. If you check-call you can get an affordable showdown, and you can induce and pickoff bluffs as often as you pay off the flush IMO.
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#10
08-24-2005, 04:09 PM
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Re: Naked A to flush on the river
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think there is good chance he will fold a medicore flush. He also might call with a set. [/ QUOTE ] ???? If he cant fold a set here, why is he going to fold a K high flush? If you pot the river your bluff has to get him to fold the flush 50% of the time to be worthwhile. If you checkraise the bluff is going to be very expensive. And if he has a set and doesnt buy that you have a better hand, you are going to be in a very difficult situation when he reraises you. If you check-call you can get an affordable showdown, and you can induce and pickoff bluffs as often as you pay off the flush IMO. [/ QUOTE ] I think you need to check the stack sizes, if i am not totaly of he got like pot+$1 left on the river. So check-raise is out, and why do i wanna check/call when i can bet out the same amount since he cant raise me.
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