30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison

[djk123]

party 30/60 full table. I'm dealt QQ on the button. UTG is a TAG, utg+1 has been very loose pf rasing with all sorts of hands, utg +2 is pretty laggy, and utg+3(mp1?) has been a rock the hour i've been on the table.

UTG raises, utg+1 3 bets, utg +2 caps, and utg+3 cold calls 4 bets ?! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

folded to me and i think for awhile and finally muck it after concluding the rock must have KK or AA. do you like this fold?

[partygirluk]

You can play for a set profitably here.

[pokergrader]

I'm calling here and letting myself make a decision on the flop.

[lil feller]

So far the first two people say "see the flop". I think thats the wrong way to go, and here's why.

First, while we'll certainly be getting action enough to play for set potential we're forgetting about those times that AA/KK are out, or God forbid both of them, and its an A/k-q-x flop, and we lose a TON of bets. So we really need to be looking at our odds of flopping/keeping top set. I don't know how to do the math, but i'm guessing it's much higher then the standard 8:1 for set potential.

Second, its awefully hard to flop an overpair, even with this kind of preflop action, unless you have to do it for 2bb at the same time.

Third (and i'm not sure of the validity of this), it isn't entirely impossible that at least on of our outs resides in the hands of the first two raisers.

All in all I think this is a good spot to just let this hand go. I don't see calling here being +EV, given the potential for spewage post flop, even if we hit.

lf

[ArturiusX]

With a pot this big our implied odds will be through the roof.

[clownshoes]

Very very bad

[Buckshot]

How can you conclude that the rock has exactly Aces or Kings? Couldn't the rock cap with AKs here? He makes AKs just as easy as he could make Aces or Kings.

Count the money in the pot. Count the IMMENSE implied odds when you flop big. Best of all, count how many spots from the button you are!

But since the "rock" killed the bitch, I might think twice about folding, but I'm a donkey gambler that would see if I could spike a Queen knowing I would be goin sizzler if I did.

~stephen

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
party 30/60 full table. I'm dealt QQ on the button. UTG is a TAG, utg+1 has been very loose pf rasing with all sorts of hands, utg +2 is pretty laggy, and utg+3(mp1?) has been a rock the hour i've been on the table.

UTG raises, utg+1 3 bets, utg +2 caps, and utg+3 cold calls 4 bets ?! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

folded to me and i think for awhile and finally muck it after concluding the rock must have KK or AA. do you like this fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting situation!

The first raiser could have anything from pairs from 88 to AJs. Is this a fair range?

UTG1 you say is loose raising PF so he could have anything.

But I think UTG2 is the crux of the decision:

UTG2 is also LAGGY you say, but you didn't say he was a maniac and this difference is significant. Even LAGs usually slow down when faced with 2 early position raises in a row. So I think most LAGs just call a 3bet here without a premium hand. The question is what are the WORST hands you see him capping with? AK, AKs, AQs, or a JJ+? I think he'd just call here with AJs, or TT-88.

And now another Rock calls the 4 cold?

I think yuk. But you do have position, and it's always possible that UTG folds to the action.

IMO, JJ would be a fold, and KK is an auto-call.

I think the math says its a fold. Assuming you need to hit your set, you need to collect 7x your preflop investment to break even. So a minimum of 14 Bigs need to fly off the stacks of your opponents, which doesn't seem feasable given 2 of your opponents are rocks, and UTG might fold. Also this doesn't count the times you pop off for a lot of bets with an underset, or you lose to a straight or flush. So you essentially need three of your four opponents to go cap the turn AND the river for you to make money or at least break even here.

-Scott

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
You can play for a set profitably here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't think this is true.

[sammy_g]

[ QUOTE ]
You can play for a set profitably here.

[/ QUOTE ]
So you would call in this spot with 22?