Settle an argument

[David Ottosen]

It's a no limit tournament which is basically winner take all (there is a second prize but it is insignificant, about 10% of first).

You are down to the last three players. There are 12K in chips on the table. You are chip leader with 6K. Second place has 4K. Third place has 2K. Blinds are 300-600.

You are the BB and receive AJo. The button (second place with 4K) raises to 1200. SB folds, and it's on you.

How would you rate the following decisions:

1) fold?
2) raise to 2500?
3) raise all in?

comments on all three options are also appreciated.

[sdplayerb]

we need info on the player in terms of aggressiveness, etc

[David Ottosen]

He is typical in every way. He knows to increase aggression 3 handed but will not blatantly steal with any 2. His variety of hands is reasonably wide, but he's not going to turn over 32o here. His hand may not be very strong, but it will have some value, and certainly enough value to raise the button 3 handed.

[MS Sunshine]

3) raise all in

Put the pressure on the other player, who might be on a weak steal, but it is likely you have best hand or two over-cards to a smaller pair coin-flip.

MS Sunshine

[Mark Heide]

David,

1)Fold

Your hand is too good to fold. In this situation if you fold you are giving this guy the chance to be chip leader. Don't consider this option.

2)Raise to 2500?

I think this is the worst option. If the original raiser is aggressive, you are giving him the opportunity to reraise you.

3)Raise all in? This option is the best out of the three you presented. You are giving your opponent a chance to fold which is a tremendous advantage.

My personal preference in this situation is to call, and move in on the flop since I will be the first to act. If there is an ace or jack on the flop, and I think he will bet again, I'd check raise all in on the flop.

Good Luck

Mark

[ohkanada]

Does this player often do the mini-raise in this situation or is this an usual bet? I will assume he mixes it up.

I like raising all-in as the best option.

Folding is my next preference. Unless the mini-raise is very out of character I would not fold.

I don't see any advantage of raising to 2500. Would you fold if he re-raised his remaining chips?

Ken Poklitar

[Greg (FossilMan)]

I hate #2, and would never fold (#1) either.

Raising all-in is my number one choice, with Mark Heide's suggestion of calling and betting the flop another good choice.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[sdplayerb]

Greg,

While I don't disagree with you, can you please explain why you hate #2?

I'd do the reraise. But I'd prefer #2 to call and bet.

SD

[Greg (FossilMan)]

I just don't see the advantage of #2 over going all-in. The player has made it T1200, and only has T2800 left. If you raise him T1300 more, it just seems like you're asking for trouble. With AJ, he is getting fair pot odds to call your T1300 raise with absolutely any hand in the deck. That means he will be correct to call, which you should like since AJ is such a vulnerable hand (the most you can be here is a 3:1 favorite).

So, while he may fold all his bluffs for T1300 more, he certainly won't fold any decent hand, and that is to your disadvantage. Then, he's quite likely to call your flop bet as well, which is also going to be bad for you pretty often. However, if you just raise all-in now, he will likely fold many hands that you want him to fold. Or, if you call now and bet the flop, he's likely to fold at least the 2/3 of the time he misses the flop, and some of the times he catches bottom or second pair, as well as some draws (such as gutshot straight draws, and runner-runner draws). All of that is good, unless you've happened to flop two-pair or better (in which case you can just check instead of betting, to induce a bluff or mistaken value bet). Overall, I think you should either fold or put him to a decision for all his chips. And, under the circumstances, I don't see how you can correctly be folding AJ, so raising all-in is by far the best play.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[David Ottosen]

Not that it's relevant. I was advocating reraising all in to a friend who had the AJ and raised to 2500. I made many of the same points you have all made. He felt it would be ok as he could get away from the hand if the flop came bad.

Of course, the flop came Kd-3d-3h and he checked. The other player bet all in for 1500 and now my friend called, as the pot represented too large a percentage of the chips on the table.

As it turned out, he was up against Ad-2d and held on to win.