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#41
10-13-2005, 02:30 PM
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Re: Admitting defeat
[ QUOTE ]
how did you lose that much on bj? isn't max bet $200? [/ QUOTE ] yes it is [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [ QUOTE ] Hey pete, the blackjack thing is not a good sign. It could be an early warning sign of a gambling problem. Seems like you learned your lesson though, so gratz for that. -James [/ QUOTE ] yeah james i know what you mean. After I got off the table I felt like a degenerate gambler. Normally I'm very good at these things. I only really play poker and I played a few dollars at at time when I was playing BJ. I didn't exactly lose 23K in BJ though, I lost it on that one session but I had a few really big sessions prior like one where I won 11K. I'm P'Oed that I gave it back and then some, but that's the action junkie in me. To be honest I didn't even know I was down that much until near the end. After a few K I just kept playing the max 200 limit every hand [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I definately learned my lesson though. But something about losing 23K in one day can be a good thing. It builds character. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I won't be playing that again. 
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#42
10-13-2005, 02:34 PM
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Re: Admitting defeat
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] It's no doubt a very emotionally draining limit on most, a fast, furious and usually very tough game, and some rake to boot too. 1000 big bet swings are common in this game, I know of several persons who have endured them. lars [/ QUOTE ] endured means they are still playing. I call BS on 1000 BB swings being common at 300/600. can you name a few players who "endured" this and are still around? the specific game BK is referring to, and i guess you must be too, i think i know close to every player who plays it with any regularity. [/ QUOTE ] US$100k swing was the largest ive heard from any substantially winning player. im sure there are larger but 1000bbs? if you swung down 1kbbs you have a problem. not only is it not "common" id go so far as to say its "impossible" for a winning non tilting player with any remote sense of game selection. Barron
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#43
10-13-2005, 02:41 PM
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Re: Admitting defeat
[ QUOTE ]
This is a good thread for someone like me, who makes his make in the 20 and 25, but keeps overextending himself with higher limit shots. Good luck BK. [/ QUOTE ] And when I say higher limit, I mean 50/100 [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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#44
10-13-2005, 02:45 PM
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Re: Admitting defeat
Is std dev something PT calculates for you? (I'm not at my home computer now). (And my PT is only half complete anyways since I only have it on my computer but I spend about half my time playing on my girlfriend's).
But extrapolating from latest memory of my PT data, I have about 100K hands at 30/60 and about 1.9bb/100. I've in the past calculated that my std dev in live play is about 10bb/hour. Not sure how that translates into bb/100, maybe 12 or so. Please run those numbers (if memory and assumption on std dev is off, it probably ain't by much) and let me know if I've just been very lucky. (Of course my losing day % may be higher than I remember (since more recent results are obviously sharper in my mind) but I doubt much higher than 10% overall. And I have to admit that I've had some losing days that were whoppers! Worst was about 150 bets. My maximum downward deviation ever has been just shy of 250bb. Playing live for 13 years, I never suffered a downswing greater than 200bb. (and this is at level up to 400/800)
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#46
10-13-2005, 03:15 PM
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Re: Admitting defeat
[ QUOTE ]
Is std dev something PT calculates for you? (I'm not at my home computer now). (And my PT is only half complete anyways since I only have it on my computer but I spend about half my time playing on my girlfriend's). But extrapolating from latest memory of my PT data, I have about 100K hands at 30/60 and about 1.9bb/100. I've in the past calculated that my std dev in live play is about 10bb/hour. Not sure how that translates into bb/100, maybe 12 or so. Please run those numbers (if memory and assumption on std dev is off, it probably ain't by much) and let me know if I've just been very lucky. (Of course my losing day % may be higher than I remember (since more recent results are obviously sharper in my mind) but I doubt much higher than 10% overall. And I have to admit that I've had some losing days that were whoppers! Worst was about 150 bets. My maximum downward deviation ever has been just shy of 250bb. Playing live for 13 years, I never suffered a downswing greater than 200bb. (and this is at level up to 400/800) [/ QUOTE ] 12 bb/100 std deviation is way too low for online play. In the 30 game I'd be very surprised if it were anything below 16. I'm going to assume 17. Using those numbers and a 2000 hand day, a losing day would be 1.58 standard deviations away. I don't have a chart with me to convert that to a %. Maybe someone can do find that and then you'll have your answer.
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#48
10-13-2005, 03:43 PM
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Re: Admitting defeat
Also, keep in mind that the % of losing sessions/days is a statistics that can be manipulated, and by itself isn't very helpful. In other words, it is possible for a break-even player to win 90% of his sessions if he quits whenever he's ahead and is willing to play till he's ahead. Of course, occaisionally, he will suffer a massive loss which'll wipe out his winnings.
I understand all that, and yet I will keep playing if stuck. And the reason I do this is strictly psychological. I hate to take a step back and accept a loss for the day. This is probably my single biggest weakness in poker. If I were to just play 6 hrs/day, win or lose, my losing % would be much greater. Overall bb/100 results would be the same. And that is the more important stat.
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#49
10-13-2005, 03:44 PM
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Re: Admitting defeat
[ QUOTE ]
Using those numbers and a 2000 hand day, a losing day would be 1.58 standard deviations away. I don't have a chart with me to convert that to a %. Maybe someone can do find that and then you'll have your answer. [/ QUOTE ] About 6% I think.
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#50
10-13-2005, 03:48 PM
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Re: Admitting defeat
Someone said you're not even 25 yet. Your skill level and record of accomplishments are extremely impressive. I've known many very successful people in life. You seem to share the most common trait among them and it's not the record of achievement. It's the willingness to reflect and be honestly critical of yourself in your desire to improve.
That's something not everyone is capable of, especially in a public forum. Very admirable. Just keep being honest with yourself and striving to improve. The rest will take care of itself.
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