Disconcerting 5/10 UB hand

[bogey]

Hey guys, I'm interested in what you thought of my play on this hand. Villain is Lakers256 who is a regular in the big game, so I assume he's good but nothing too specific to go on.

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $10 BB (10 handed) converter

Button ($1016.50)
Hero ($1299)
BB ($984)
UTG <font color="#A500AF">(Villain)</font> ($2674.25)
UTG+1 ($555)
UTG+2 ($1272)
MP1 ($2277.75)
MP2 ($951)
MP3 ($380)
CO ($601.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($20) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $30</font>, BB calls $30, Villain calls $30.

Turn: ($110) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Villain bets $65</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $250</font>, BB folds, Villain calls $185.

River: ($610) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $250</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Villain raises to $1370</font>

[lapoker17]

Tough hand. Your $250 on the river is really bad - He could smell some weakness there and be capitalizing - I would've made it more like $400-$500. However, he knows you are strong because of your c/r on the turn and he's not scared, so I think a bluff is less likely here. I think he has KQ and is overbetting because he knows you also have a hand - I begrudgingly fold.

[arkose]

maybe it would have been better to check the river....he cold-called a big check-raise on the turn so he obviously has something good...

if you check the river when the board pairs, it allows him to more easily bluff a % of the time, and you also won't lose as much on the hand if he bets the pot ($600) with a full house and you call

[lapoker17]

Good point Arkose.

[kim2005]

i don't like betting 30 at sb it make less chance to make action,I prefer:
1)post flop bet 20 and let ppl think i have J on draw and raise me then u can trap him on turn
2) post flop bet 50 make the pot large and so u can check raise more on turn if HU and then just go all in or check call on river

Comment?

[GimmeDaWatch]

This hand is a little tough, though, b/c it seems like all the hands that are beating you here would have re-raised you on the turn, i.e. TT, KQ, and AJ, except maybe QTs. The underbet does make it a little more likely he's bluffing, but I would still guess that he's full here, having called your turn raise, and maybe an outside chance at QJ.

[riverboatking]

two things.
first of all, its very difficult to imagine him not raising on the flop with two pair or a set.
however some overly trap happy players will wait for the turn which leads us to point two:

don't checkraise the turn. lead out for a slightly larger then pot bet. if he has the two pair or set get it in on the turn as a huge favorite. if he has one pair and a draw maybe he'll try and take it away from you...but you really don't want to give him a free card because then you make very little money if he checks behind.
plus most players won't give you credit for the str8 when you come out firing twice.
when you lead the flop and C/R the turn your hand is really well defined...and now you don't know if he's trying to take it away from you on the river.

however i think you're beat here because unless he knows you are extremely capable of laying down big hands its very hard to put him on a bluff...as most players (especally online) won't fold a str8 here period.

but once you get to the river i think i agree with the others...check call.
its like skalansky preaches, a bet in this situation has very little EV.
if you lead he folds a majority of hands, however if you check you most likely either pay off a value bet on the river or snap off a bluff.

[Jason Strasser]

I actually like the river blocking bet. I also think you must fold the river.

[arkose]

if this opponent calls the big check-raise on the turn, he may have a hard time believing that the 2nd queen helped you...especially since you lead out for 250 on the river which is basically the exact same amount as the turn CR...

if this opponent is probably a decent player ('regularily plays the big game') then he will probably read this as weakness and raise big whether he has you beat or not...so instead of calling down a $600 bet by the guy, you are faced with putting 1300....and the likelihood of the guy bluffing goes *way* down, imo

[arkose]

looking at the hand again...in all honesty, what would your opponent call your big CR with on the turn that you can still beat on the river.....i like the idea of blocking bets in some situations, but not here...

he could have TT, QT, KQ, AJ...even KK that he was hoping to limp-reraise with preflop......i can't see him playing AK this way...

i think check-call is the best move here