Bad Beat Marathon

[mbk808]

What are the odds of this happening in a 2 day session?

I'm Dealt:

KK lose to AA
KK, flop a set, lose to straight
KK, flop a set, lose to flush
KK, flop a set, lose to straight....Again!!
KK, Flop a set, lose to full house
AA, flop a set, full house on river, lost to Quads
JJ, flop a set, lost to higher set

I swear all this happened in just 2 days, funny thing is .. I still ended up a few bucks ahead

[TomCollins]

About the same as the odds of you getting flamed when you post this.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
About the same as the odds of you getting flamed when you post this.

[/ QUOTE ]

wrong. it's 1 - P(getting flamed when you post this)

[Nathan183]

I'd say about the same as anyone here caring.

For all we know, none of these were bad beats. KK vs AA certainly isn't. And you maybe have played the others poorly, allowing others to draw out on you.

[danzasmack]

[ QUOTE ]
What are the odds of this happening in a 2 day session?

I'm Dealt:

KK lose to AA
KK, flop a set, lose to straight
KK, flop a set, lose to flush
KK, flop a set, lose to straight....Again!!
KK, Flop a set, lose to full house
AA, flop a set, full house on river, lost to Quads
JJ, flop a set, lost to higher set

I swear all this happened in just 2 days, funny thing is .. I still ended up a few bucks ahead

[/ QUOTE ]

The only "bad beat" i see is losing with A's full to quads. It happens. Flopping a set of K's and losing to a full house means you had KK vs. AA... That happens.

I think you are exaggerating.

And here is your answer to every "what are the odds!?" question in both poker and life - Apparently not 0.

Somewhere, somebody has gotten AA many hands in a row - and lost with them all. There are that many hands of poker dealt (and more) to make this event near certain.

The best part is none of these win you the BBJ on PP hahaha

[Gordon Scott]

I agree for the most part but.

[ QUOTE ]
Flopping a set of K's and losing to a full house means you had KK vs. AA... That happens.


[/ QUOTE ]

I would think that Ax on a board of KAAxy happens more than AA over KK and they both sting.

Funny thing I flopped sets twice (one over set one under) and got beat by quads in a weekend playing 10-20. It really sucked. About two weeks ago I Flopped quads twice in 4 hours and got great action in the same 10-20 game. They go around and they come around. It all works out even in the end.

Best of Luck

[benneh]

jesus. you get dealt KK and AA an awful lot in just 2 days. i get maybe half of those and even then i dont flop a set nearly that much.

[RiverDood]

Peeling away the peripheral details, it sounds like you're startled that six premium hands (KK and AA) didn't hold up even once. The JJ hand could have lost for all kinds of reasons, most of them uninteresting. I'll omit that from the analysis.

Playing AA to the river against nine opponents, you'll win about 30% of the time. I don't know the prospects for KK and they surely must be smaller. But let's assume for the sake of easy math that they're the same.

In that case, the odds of losing all six hands are 0.7 to the sixth, or 0.117.

Now you may say it's silly to assume that all your opponents stayed in to the river. But I'm sure that in the hundreds of hands that you didn't tell us about, you were a luck box in at least a few of them. Maybe six. Maybe more.

Anyway, we share your pain. I raised AA preflop in a low-stakes limit game once and lost to a 72o who stayed in for god knows why. The flop came Q74. I bet some more. He stayed in. The turn was a 7. We both bet it and the river, which was a blank. His hand was good. But I didn't curse, scream or post. I forgot totally about the hand, knowing that it was just a strange random occurence that would soon be offset by random luck in my favor.

[Klepton]

this will not end well for you

[12AX7]

Wow, sounds like the week I just had except mine were more like AA get cracked by 72o that flopped two pair and ended up as full house. (Literally!)

Glad to know I'm not alone!

But, I must be a worse player than you, I'm certainly not a few buck ahead!