Tough call on bubble....oh lordee

[tminus]

Foe is a smart tight agro player who just lost most of his chips from a bad beat and is about to be split by the blinds. The table has been a bit tight folding to his pushes. For this reason I put him on any two cards.

Ive already posted the BB and can call with 1/2 my stack with a 45% chance of moneying. OR fold with 100% chance of the both of us remaining as mid stacks. The other two players are a bit weak and I'd love to knock him out and take advantage of them...heehee


NL Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1
Level:6 Blinds(100/200) - Thursday, July 07, 17:04:10 EDT 2005
Table Table 39801 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 5: BLClements ( $3546 )
Seat 6: Tminus9 ( $1545 )
Seat 7: scruggsie ( $777 )
Seat 10: bray2487 ( $2132 )
Trny:13730194 Level:6
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Tminus9 [ 5d 9d ]
scruggsie is all-In [777]
bray2487 folds.
BLClements folds.

[tshort]

I think this is an easy fold. Next hand you get to push back for the chips he takes.

[ilya]

I'd fold....your hand is just too weak considering that a loss would shift the balance of power significantly.
With the big stacks playing a tight game, you're likely to get a chance to steal shortie's blind next hand -- and he's less likely to gamble since he knows that his pushes have a lot of folding equity.

[Freudian]

This is a clear fold for me. Not even close.

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
For this reason I put him on any two cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

I fold. I don't think many people push *any* 2 UTG. Do you really think he's pushing 23o? 35o?

According to SGA:

If we assume he is pushing 22+, A2+, K2+, Q2+, J8+, it would be a fold. (This is most likely scenario, IMO.)

If he is pushing any 2, it would be a call.

Don't forget that "any 2" includes hands like 66, AJ, QQ, etc... They aren't all junk!

[Bigwig]

Actually, I don't think this is tough at all. If shorty had 577, we could talk. I think this is a clear fold.

[valenzuela]

tough call....more like easy fold.

[tminus]

63% of all players go all in on the next hand if they just lost 70% or more of their stack

[tshort]

Does PP provide you that stat?

[tminus]

no, a member of this site analyzed 3000+ tourns and came up with it