30-60 party --- folded the winning hand

[wdcbooks]

You really need to raise the flop. You have position which buys you a free card if you decide to take it. You got a great flop for 99. One overcard and it isn't the ace.

This is a case where you really need information about the quality of your hand. If you are three bet you can almost certainly fold with a clear conscience. If you are called and checked to on the turn I think you are likely to have the best hand and can bet most cards for value.

As a HUSH lurker and occasional poster it strikes me that you played this hand the way a full ring player might, but in a short handed game your 99 is a much more powerful hand and should be treated as such.

So you are getting 11:1 on the flop if I'm not misstaken. You have 23:1 to get the nine if you call which means it is enough for you to have the best hand 4-5% of the time. With this in mind I cannot see how it could be correct to fold, since you also have position. Clearly SB has you beaten most of the time but you cannot be sure. Therefore Raise of Call on the flop would be the only options. I think a solid case could be made for both. Fold could only be in option if you had a really good read on SB.

[eviljeff]

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So you are getting 11:1 on the flop if I'm not misstaken. You have 23:1 to get the nine if you call which means it is enough for you to have the best hand 4-5% of the time.

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can you show how you got the 4-5% estimate?

[MattiasL]

[ QUOTE ]
So you are getting 11:1 on the flop if I'm not misstaken. You have 23:1 to get the nine if you call which means it is enough for you to have the best hand 4-5% of the time. With this in mind I cannot see how it could be correct to fold, since you also have position. Clearly SB has you beaten most of the time but you cannot be sure. Therefore Raise of Call on the flop would be the only options. I think a solid case could be made for both. Fold could only be in option if you had a really good read on SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

On the flop you get 15:1 (threeway cap preflop + BB = 13 bets + flop bet and call = 15). You are are almost getting the implied odds to call and spike the nine (you need to get more than 4 more BBs on average - counting the times you get beaten), so you only need a small extra edge to get to +EV.

The problem is that even if you are indeed best you cant call a turn bet UI, so you play for a combination of the two possibilities
1. You spike the nine and win
2. You have the best hand AND none of the opponents bet the turn to fold you AND you do not get outdrawn.

Just having the best hand on the flop is not enough to win.

A flop raise would slash your pot odds which modifies the situation.