HU SNG theory question

[jon_1van]

I recently started playing the HU SNGs on PS.

For those who aren't aware of them, each player starts with 1500. Blinds levels are 10/20-->15/30-->25/50-->50/100

In my expereince (of about 20 low buying) sng's it is rare for the SNG to last to the 50/100 round.

So most of the SNG is played pretty deep.

Question
How shallow does your opponent need to be for you to risk doubling him up with a most likely inferior hand. For instance, you have 57s, you think your opponent has something like KJ. He pushes _____ into a pot with 75 in it. What does that blank have to be for you to call with any hand you think is live.



Thought process A.

Well, if you think your hand is live you should call with all sorts of hands. The reason is if you think you are 40/60 then by calling you will win the whole SNG 40% of the time. And the remaining 60% of the time you'll win (say you have a slight edge) 60% of those times. So in total you'll win 40% + .6*60% = 76% of the time.


Thought process B.

It would be retarded to call when you think you are a 40/60 dog. Just ship him the 75 and move on.


Now, I see flaws in both thought processes.

In process A we might not be maximizing the possible % win when auto calling a dog. It should be easy to contruct a situation where we win a large portion of the time when we already have a large portion of the chips. So just showing that we win alot does not show that we win the highest % possible from that point in the SNG.

The problem with B is that using this logic too much when the opponent starts trying to push themselves out of the basement might really hurt your chances. If you allow an opponent to push 3 consecutive times they could easily go from 600 to 600 + 50 + 25 + 50 = 725. Now if you decide to take a stand your opponent goes to 1450 instead of 1200.


So how many chips does your opponent have to have for you to call the 1st push irregardless (3k chips in play)? Currently my answer is 700 chips. From here on out I push every playable hand. I also call any push if I think my cards are likely to be live.