Playing online for a living week 21

[davidross]

Despite a very decent result last week I can’t get over the feeling that I took more than my share of bad beats, and that I’m struggling somewhat. That continued on Sunday as I started out in a hole again right off the bat. Way down on Paradise , and just breaking even at Party. It’s a disturbing trend but when I review the hands I don’t see any flaws in my play, just good hands getting beat. Once again I made a nice comeback at Paradise after midnight , and ended up down $41, and with a small win at Party of $104 I started the week much better than last week anyway.

Do you ever get the feeling the cards are about to change for you? As I’ve mentioned I feel like I’m getting cold decked a lot lately and I told my wife I was due to break out big time. Sure enough on Monday afternoon I had a nice session and posted a $300 win. Ooops. Monday night was possible the worst session I’ve ever played. If I thought the cards were running bad before, I was in for a rude awakening. I had 4 tables going and I was down over $200 on every one of them. And I think I played pretty well. I made a lot of top pair top kicker laydowns on the turn. I saw set after set against me, and got rivered by flushes and straights again and again. Of course the higher stakes at Paradise skew my results towards my play there, I was still getting clobbered at Party. The good thing about Party though is that you know the bad players will pay you off when you finally hit, at Paradise that’s not always the case. Fortunately, once again around 1:30 AM the cards turned and I went on a mini-rush. Not enough to get out of the hole mind you but I ended up the day down $350 at Paradise and up $200 at Party (Down 100 for the evening). This does leave me down $90 for the week though, and it will be a real tough task to keep my string of 2,000 weeks going.

Tuesday afternoon and the misery continues. When I won the first 3 hands I played I thought it was going to be a breakout session, but that was it for a long time. I’m winning pots only when everyone folds on the flop. It seems every hand that makes it to the turn I lose. I dropped another $177 putting me down $260 for the week. I have to remind myself to be patient, but it’s starting to get to me. I won two huge hands this afternoon, $176, and $144 on dubious runner runner suckouts. Without them my results would have been even worse.

At Party I take one off a lot on draws because you get paid off well and these were both examples of that. 1st hand I have Tc 8c in the BB and after an EP raise there are 3 cold callers and I call too. Flop is Qc Td 9h. EP raiser bets and 2 call him. I called two with my middle pair, backdoor flush, gutshot combination. Too loose? Turn brings an 8s giving me a probably useless 2 pair. EP bets again and 1 caller and I call again. River 8h. I check, EP bets, caller, I raise and EP 3 bets. Cold call and I cap after thinking for a bit. KJ and Q9 were the other hands.

2nd hand I limp behind 2 others in MP with 5s 4s, and after 2 more limpers the BB raises. 6 of us see the flop for 2 bets. Flop is Ks 6d 2h. BB bets out, I call as do 2 others. Again I think I have odds on the gutshot alone, and the backdoor flush is still there. Turn brings the Js giving me 8 more outs. BB bets, I call and so does 1 other. River is the perfect 3d. Talk about a well disguised hand. He bets, I raise and the LP player calls 2 cold. BB 3 bets, I cap and LP folds. BB had KK but to his credit never muttered a complaint.

Thank god for those 2 hands, both on the same table by the way. I ended up ahead only $70 on that table and down on the other 2. Although dollar wise it doesn’t compare with the losing streak I had back in weeks 8 and 9, it is the most frustrating stretch I’ve had since then. Now I have to keep my cool and play good poker until it turns around. To my credit I think I could have lost a lot more if I had gone completely on tilt.

This week just keeps getting worse and worse. Tuesday night my losing streak at Paradise continued with a small loss of $34, and I actually won $100 at Party leaving me down $100 for the day there and down $200 overall for the week.

Wednesday I took the afternoon off and played golf at one of my favorite courses, National Pines in Barrie. It’s a 90 minute drive from home but worth it. And in keeping with the trend of my week I was dreadful. Once upon a time I was a decent golfer playing to an 8 handicap, and even 2 years ago I think I was around a 12. I shot 98 yesterday which is the highest score I can remember posting since I was a junior. It’s funny how when I’m winning the rest of my life seems to go well too, and the opposite when I’m running bad. I don’t know if this qualifies as running bad, since I’m not actually down very much, but compared to my averages it sure seems like it. Wednesday night was another awful Paradise session, combined with a decent Party session. Same old song and dance at Paradise, winning until the river, or drawing dead with good cards. I lost $280 for my 4th straight losing session at Paradise. Last time that happened was the 2 losing weeks I had in June/July. I’m down $700 at Paradise for the week and up $430 at Party. It makes me wonder about continuing to play both 5/10 and 3/6 games, because of the higher variance involved with the 5/10 games.

I know no one wants to hear bad beat stories…but….these 4 hands occurred on my 2 5/10 tables within 10 minutes of each other. It’s a good example of how I’ve been running for around a week now. I don’t think there is much I can do about it, just remember how well I’ve been running long term, and weather the storm.

1) 2 limpers to me 2 off the button and I limp with 99. 5 of us see the flop of QQ9. Checked to me and I check too hoping someone will catch up. There are 2 spades on board. Button bets behind me, MP and I both call. Turn brings an offsuit 3 and MP bets out. I probably should raise here, but I smooth call. River is a 5 making a flush possible. MP bets, I raise, he 3 bets and I cap. He has Q9 and had me the whole way.
2) 2 limpers to me in the small blind and I call with JTo. BB plays too. Flop is AT8 rainbow. I check and it gets checked to the button who bets. He will bet any hand here and I raise to isolate him. I make this play against certain players. Sure enough the 2 people between us fold and he calls. Turn is a 3. I bet he calls. River is another 8, I check he bets and I call. He had Q8s and picked up a flush draw on the turn so he stayed. Good read, good play, bad river.
3) AN LP raise from a habitual bluffer, and I have QJs in the SB. I call. BB calls. Flop is KJ5 2 diamonds and none of my suit. Checked to the raiser who bets, I just call this time and so does the BB. Turn is a Q making 2 flush draws. This time I check raise the LP, BB calls 2 cold and LP calls. River is an 8, no flush. I bet, BB folds and LP raises. I call (he’s the bluffer remember) and he shows K8. Another river. Blech.
4) Free play in the BB with 43o heads up. Flop is 432, 2 clubs. I check raise the flop. Turn is an 8. I bet and he calls. River is another 8. I bet, he raises I call, he has A8.

None of these hands is remarkable by itself, but all together in that short period of time. And it keeps on happening. I have to follow my own advice and hang in there. I have the big $100,000 guaranteed tournament on Friday night, so the hours I have left to pull off a win this week are limited, but I guess I shouldn’t be so focused on weekly results, just keep playing solid poker.

I’ve had so many nice comments from people who like these posts that I was quite taken aback on Tuesday night when for the first time I had someone act quite hostile towards me. Kept telling me How F***ing lucky I was, if what I was writing was true, which he doubted, and how I was due for a major fall. Now maybe there are a lot of people who feel that way, and he may even be right, but why would you come out and say that to someone? The new 3/6 sensation Akshawnd was at the table stirring things up in his inimitable style. I think we’ve determined it’s JA Sucker and he plays very well, and he puts entire tables on tilt so maybe this guy was already in a bad mood from that. And maybe he was just trying to put me on tilt. Combine that with my lousy results and it made for a crappy evening. Except I love watching Akshawnd in action.

I am so glad this week is over. I think I can just take what I wrote earlier in the week and put it in again. This has been a frustrating grind this week. I guess I was overdue for a week like this and I should be pleased that I didn’t lose anything. Thursday I actually broke the losing streak at Paradise with a $134 win and added another $100 from Party. Friday, I combined a $240 Paradise win with a $107 loss at Party, and a 484th place finish in the big tournament. The tournament was disappointing but not unexpected. I think I played well, and was quite healthy through 5 rounds, but as the stakes went up I stopped getting cards and got my last 1200 in with JJ on a board filled with undercards, but a turned flush put me out. Saturday was brutal at Paradise. I lost $465 playing premium cards. 3 times I held a set on $200 + pots and had someone spike their 2 out set on the river. I kept getting hands like AJ and AQ on the button in unraised pots, only to have the BB 3 bet me with QQ, KK or AA. Twice I held AA against KK and the K flopped. Etcetera etcetera. Fortunately my night at Party was terrific. I won $578 to caver the paradise loss. For the week I’m down $805 at Paradise and up $1010 at Party for a $205 win.

This now presents me with a decision point. Introducing the 5/10 games back into my schedule has added the variance back. It allowed me some terrific weeks, but has now introduced the possibility of a losing week too. I like playing the 4 tables in the evening, but I’m contemplating opening an Empire account to play 4 3/6’s. I’ll give Paradise another week, but it’s a lot of work playing the good players at 5/10.

Both Friday and Saturday night I stayed up much later than normal trying to turn around a bad run. I usually quit between 2:30 and 3:00 AM, but played until 4 on Friday and 4:30 on Saturday, with disastrous results both times. I think I lost $500 at paradise in those 2.5 extra hours. I know I’ve written before about quitting on a bad night and pushing when your hot, but I can’t seem to take my own advice. What’s worse is that it throws off my body clock for the next day too. Discipline, it’s all about discipline.

Got another call about employment this week. Just a possible in Ottawa which is around 4 hours away. The money would have to be real good to take that one.

My wife has commented that my mood has been affected by the bad results this week. I guess she’s right. Another hazard of an uncertain revenue stream, but I’ll need to be careful of that. No fair taking it out on the wife and kids. The dog however is fair game.

Don’t you love when this happens?

I have T9o in the BB. One limper to Tricky Guy in the cut off who raises. I call the raise and so does the limper. Flop is J 7 3 rainbow. I check, limper checks and so does TG. Turn is the gutshot 8. I bet, Limper calls and TG raises. Sweet. I 3 bet, limper calls all-in and TG begins to fear he’s made a mistake and just calls. River is a K, I bet, he calls and my nuts are of course good. TG had AA, and in fact was destined to lose anyway because the limper had J 8 and wasn’t going to fold to the flop bet.

I find my luck runs in waves. Usually there is a turning point that changes it. Last night after running bad all night, I finally had an AA hold up although a 2nd Q on the river made my heart skip. I could almost feel the black cloud lift from over my head and 2 hands later I got JJ and open raised. I got 2 callers and I said out loud “I’m going to hit this flop, give me JKK”. It went even better than that. The flop came JJK. I bet and got called until the river when they both folded. I then proceeded to make a straight flush against a set and it looked like my night had turned around. That was at 3:00 AM when I decided to stay up later, and one of my rivered sets set me to losing again.

Cya at the tables.

[frizzfreeling]

I have been slowly building my way up through the ranks at Party, but I am still only playing the $1/$2 game. I have found that even when playing only two games at once, it is very hard to keep track of my opponents. So far, it is no big deal...just play tight and aggressive and watch the board. How can you be doing anything more than that when playing 3 or even 4 tables at once? Or is simple tight aggressive play still good for grinding it out at that level? I find it hard to believe that you can know anything more than just the very basics about your competition (ie, very loose or tight, etc) when you are up against 36 players in 4 ring gamesat the $3/$6 level.
I am kind of in a quandary here because I tend to be very conservative and protective about my bankroll. I currently have amassed about 600 big bets at the $1/$2 games at the rate of about 3.5BB per 100 hands. But I worry that maybe I am still missing something crucial for the higher games and am kind of afraid to move up. Then I read your posts and hear about how you are making good money playing 4 games at once! Is it really just T.A. play and some decent reading skills that gets you there?

[bugstud]

opening an empire account would be very, very useful I think, the 3/6 games on party are too good not too...not to mention an extra deposit bonus.

[crockpot]

actually an extra two deposit bonuses (or three), counting IGMPAY codes too.

plus you can have the bonus whore's delight: play exclusively on party or empire for a week or two, and the other will offer you a $50 comeback bonus. who can say no to that?

[bugstud]

sadly, igmpay doesn't work in canada...bastards

[davidross]

Frizz,

90% of my earnings comes from bad play by my opposition, not from anything tricky I'm doing. You raise when you are the best and if they call they are losing money. You get out when you're behind without much damage and the rest takes care of itself. Of course knowing when you're ahead and behind is th ewhole trick.

Even with 4 tables you figure out pretty quickly who the maniacs and bad players are. And it's not very often you are playing 2 hands at once if you are playing properly tight.

[JTrout]

Nice post, David. Always an enjoyable read. If I may offer any advice, it's, "Take your own advice." Discipline about hours. And separate poker results(attitude) from the rest of your life. My profession has a similar pitfall in that mood (and self-worth) is often determined by performance. That's a miserable, detrimental weekness (speaking of me, not you). Anyway, keep up the great posts, and I look forward to seeing you at the tables.
p.s. The Empire thing seems like a no-brainer. Here's an idea: don't tell anyone your new identity, and you can SEE if your posts here have had any detrimental effect on performance (I suspect not). And we can get a pool going to see who can be the first to identify you! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[jasonHoldEm]

David,

bummer about your lackluster week, I think moving to empire for your fourth game is a very good idea. Why not add an extra game where you're a big favorite rather than one that's causing you high variance? Seems like an easy choice to me.

I'm slowly creeping into 3/6, I'm sure we'll run into each other in the next few weeks.

peace,
jHE

[frizzfreeling]

David,
Thanks for the quick reply. Thats kind of the way I see it too. By the way, I thought I read one of your posts a while back saying that you are playing just about any pair in early posistion??? Is that right, and if so, how is it going with it. To me it seems like a big time net loser. I would even go so far as to say so in all but the very loosest and passive games. I do not put a lot of faith in simulations, but I have found that on TTHV5, no matter how you set up the competition (loose passive/aggressive, tight passive, etc), from early and even middle posistion, you are loosing a wad on twos and threes and even fours/fives (early). Now I know simulations are not even close to immitating real games, but when you are looking at an average flop of 6+ players, with almost no pre-flop raising and you are still losing a bundle in EP sims, you gotta give it some serious consideration. Whats your thoughts here?

[1800GAMBLER]

Hey, sorry to hear about the minor fall hope you get straight back on set, wow, lots of unintentional, unfunny poker puns there.

Anyhow just a hand that i'm curious about.

[ QUOTE ]


4) Free play in the BB with 43o heads up. Flop is 432, 2 clubs. I check raise the flop. Turn is an 8. I bet and he calls. River is another 8. I bet, he raises I call, he has A8.


[/ QUOTE ]

Anyone else go in checkcall mode on the river? Not that i'm fearing an 8, but if he has a 4 any kicker you are losing. It's also just more than 50% a pair was dealt.

Only the pair of 3s that he could hold and be willing to call with that makes that river bet +EV as compared to a lot of others. Thoughs?