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#21
11-12-2005, 07:12 PM
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Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] First of all, your raise preflop UTG makes no sense. Not for shania, not for any reason. Fold. As for the turn: I call here and check the river. This gives him another opportunity for a desparation bluff. [/ QUOTE ] This is how LAGs do it....dirty! If you were villian, would you see 85s coming here from a PFR? Exactly. [/ QUOTE ] It's how bad LAGs do it. [/ QUOTE ] I've been outed! [/ QUOTE ] What's your reasoning for this raise? What do you mean you're "raising for value?" [/ QUOTE ] I'm surprised you asked, since it's so obviously awful (in your view). Let's assume folding is EV=0. Let's also assume that coming in for a raise vs. limping is close in terms of +-EV. I always come in for a raise if I'm going to open the pot so I'm not going to consider the EV of calling. So the question is, over all trillion+ possible starting hands, flops, turns, rivers, betting actions, etc etc, can I squeeze out a dime of profit by raising this hand in early position? If it turns out I cannot (maybe is unprofitable by a dollar), can I make up for it with the action I get on my other hands from observant opponents (whether they see that I raised an 85 UTG or whether they simply see I'm raising more hands than would seem possible). Obviously it is nearly impossible to answer these questions. To the first question as to whether it is profitable in a vacuum, I would suspect it's really really close. It's very dependent on the skill of your players and whether they can properly adjust to this sort of play. This play certainly increases my variance. However it gives me the ability to splash around a little more than I would otherwise, and I think it can't hurt the action I get on my better hands. Just the thoughts of a bad LAG. 
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#22
11-12-2005, 07:14 PM
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Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Im not going broke here. He could easily have 77 or 22. I call his raise and check/call the river. [/ QUOTE ] Pot on river will be $320+ which is less than what either of us have left. Would you check/fold to an all-in? I'm thinking the stack considerations mean that if you call the turn you should probably just push any river. [/ QUOTE ] No, I wouldnt push any river. The guy might shove all in with AT if you check to him and hes tilting. Do you think hes gong to call YOUR all in with AT? I have no problem with your preflop raise, but theres no such thing as raising for value preflop with 85s [/ QUOTE ] Iceman your posts do not compute. First you said you refuse to go broke here, then you say I should be check-calling his river bet. A check-call breaks me!
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#23
11-12-2005, 07:21 PM
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Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Im not going broke here. He could easily have 77 or 22. I call his raise and check/call the river. [/ QUOTE ] Pot on river will be $320+ which is less than what either of us have left. Would you check/fold to an all-in? I'm thinking the stack considerations mean that if you call the turn you should probably just push any river. [/ QUOTE ] No, I wouldnt push any river. The guy might shove all in with AT if you check to him and hes tilting. Do you think hes gong to call YOUR all in with AT? I have no problem with your preflop raise, but theres no such thing as raising for value preflop with 85s [/ QUOTE ] Iceman your posts do not compute. First you said you refuse to go broke here, then you say I should be check-calling his river bet. A check-call breaks me! [/ QUOTE ] I didnt say I refuse to go broke. I said "Im not going broke". I shouldve said Im not sure Im willing to go broke. I havent decided yet at this point in the hand (when he raises) When you call his turn raise, the pot is going to be about $320 but youre still going to have $245 left. You dont know if hes going to push or not. If he does, you have to make a tough decision. But still, against this guy who is tilting, I would rather call his all in than push myself. Thats the main point Im trying to make. Also, like I said, I have no problem with the preflop raise, but if you raise EVERY time you open a pot, youre going to get run over by a good player.
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#24
11-12-2005, 07:24 PM
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Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Im not going broke here. He could easily have 77 or 22. I call his raise and check/call the river. [/ QUOTE ] Pot on river will be $320+ which is less than what either of us have left. Would you check/fold to an all-in? I'm thinking the stack considerations mean that if you call the turn you should probably just push any river. [/ QUOTE ] No, I wouldnt push any river. The guy might shove all in with AT if you check to him and hes tilting. Do you think hes gong to call YOUR all in with AT? I have no problem with your preflop raise, but theres no such thing as raising for value preflop with 85s [/ QUOTE ] Iceman your posts do not compute. First you said you refuse to go broke here, then you say I should be check-calling his river bet. A check-call breaks me! [/ QUOTE ] I didnt say I refuse to go broke. I said "Im not going broke". I shouldve said Im not sure Im willing to go broke. I havent decided yet at this point in the hand (when he raises) When you call his turn raise, the pot is going to be about $320 but youre still going to have $245 left. You dont know if hes going to push or not. If he does, you have to make a tough decision. But still, against this guy who is tilting, I would rather call his all in than push myself. Thats the main point Im trying to make. Also, like I said, I have no problem with the preflop raise, but if you raise EVERY time you open a pot, youre going to get run over by a good player. [/ QUOTE ] All I can do is pray I never run into this good player you speak of!
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#25
11-12-2005, 07:38 PM
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Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Im not going broke here. He could easily have 77 or 22. I call his raise and check/call the river. [/ QUOTE ] Pot on river will be $320+ which is less than what either of us have left. Would you check/fold to an all-in? I'm thinking the stack considerations mean that if you call the turn you should probably just push any river. [/ QUOTE ] No, I wouldnt push any river. The guy might shove all in with AT if you check to him and hes tilting. Do you think hes gong to call YOUR all in with AT? I have no problem with your preflop raise, but theres no such thing as raising for value preflop with 85s [/ QUOTE ] Iceman your posts do not compute. First you said you refuse to go broke here, then you say I should be check-calling his river bet. A check-call breaks me! [/ QUOTE ] I didnt say I refuse to go broke. I said "Im not going broke". I shouldve said Im not sure Im willing to go broke. I havent decided yet at this point in the hand (when he raises) When you call his turn raise, the pot is going to be about $320 but youre still going to have $245 left. You dont know if hes going to push or not. If he does, you have to make a tough decision. But still, against this guy who is tilting, I would rather call his all in than push myself. Thats the main point Im trying to make. Also, like I said, I have no problem with the preflop raise, but if you raise EVERY time you open a pot, youre going to get run over by a good player. [/ QUOTE ] All I can do is pray I never run into this good player you speak of! [/ QUOTE ] I raise with suited connectors from any position all the time and have yet to run into someone giving me alot of problems, but if I see you raising that crap, I'll be reraising you all day long. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#26
11-12-2005, 07:46 PM
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Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Im not going broke here. He could easily have 77 or 22. I call his raise and check/call the river. [/ QUOTE ] Pot on river will be $320+ which is less than what either of us have left. Would you check/fold to an all-in? I'm thinking the stack considerations mean that if you call the turn you should probably just push any river. [/ QUOTE ] No, I wouldnt push any river. The guy might shove all in with AT if you check to him and hes tilting. Do you think hes gong to call YOUR all in with AT? I have no problem with your preflop raise, but theres no such thing as raising for value preflop with 85s [/ QUOTE ] Iceman your posts do not compute. First you said you refuse to go broke here, then you say I should be check-calling his river bet. A check-call breaks me! [/ QUOTE ] I didnt say I refuse to go broke. I said "Im not going broke". I shouldve said Im not sure Im willing to go broke. I havent decided yet at this point in the hand (when he raises) When you call his turn raise, the pot is going to be about $320 but youre still going to have $245 left. You dont know if hes going to push or not. If he does, you have to make a tough decision. But still, against this guy who is tilting, I would rather call his all in than push myself. Thats the main point Im trying to make. Also, like I said, I have no problem with the preflop raise, but if you raise EVERY time you open a pot, youre going to get run over by a good player. [/ QUOTE ] All I can do is pray I never run into this good player you speak of! [/ QUOTE ] I raise with suited connectors from any position all the time and have yet to run into someone giving me alot of problems, but if I see you raising that crap, I'll be reraising you all day long. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I guess I'll have to keep my screen name a secret.
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#27
11-12-2005, 07:48 PM
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Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
[ QUOTE ]
So I think you and I have established that this is a really interesting/tough spot to be in. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Yeah [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] FWIW I am starting to lean towards the check call line. If he has air here I think he'll bluff his stack off on the river v often.
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#28
11-12-2005, 07:55 PM
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Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] First of all your raise preflop UTG makes no sense. Not for shania, not for any reason. Fold. As for the turn: I call here and check the river. This gives him another opportunity for a desparation bluff. [/ QUOTE ] This is how LAGs do it....dirty! If you were villian, would you see 85s coming here from a PFR? Exactly. [/ QUOTE ] It's how bad LAGs do it. [/ QUOTE ] I've been outed! [/ QUOTE ] What's your reasoning for this raise? What do you mean you're "raising for value?" [/ QUOTE ] I'm surprised you asked, since it's so obviously awful (in your view). Let's assume folding is EV=0. Let's also assume that coming in for a raise vs. limping is close in terms of +-EV. I always come in for a raise if I'm going to open the pot so I'm not going to consider the EV of calling [/ QUOTE ] Ok. [ QUOTE ] So the question is, over all trillion+ possible starting hands, flops, turns, rivers, betting actions, etc etc, can I squeeze out a dime of profit by raising this hand in early position? If it turns out I cannot (maybe is unprofitable by a dollar), can I make up for it with the action I get on my other hands from observant opponents (whether they see that I raised an 85 UTG or whether they simply see I'm raising more hands than would seem possible). Obviously it is nearly impossible to answer these questions. To the first question as to whether it is profitable in a vacuum, I would suspect it's really really close. It's very dependent on the skill of your players and whether they can properly adjust to this sort of play [/ QUOTE ] This analysis really offers nothing when you look at it closely. You sorta just come to arbitrary conclusions w/o any evidence. [ QUOTE ] This play certainly increases my variance. However it gives me the ability to splash around a little more than I would otherwise, and I think it can't hurt the action I get on my better hands. Just the thoughts of a bad LAG. [/ QUOTE ] This is true, but pick better hands to accomplish this. First of all, I didn't mean to indicate that you are a bad LAG (seemingly that's how you interpreted it). You can't raise for value with 85s UTG. That doesn't make any sense. I raise lotsa hands, but the most important part is to have decent position and have a hand where you can flop something hidden (ie-gapper connectors). Your hand holds no strength whatsoever--you're trying to flop a weak two pair? a low flush draw? trips with a weak kicker that will put you in a very difficult decision given your image? i mean it's imporant to have a somewhat wide range of hands UTG, UTG+1, but you can choose better hands to accomplish this. Obviously you'll have the opportunity to bluff at every flop you miss (and you will miss pretty much every one), but I contend that this will cost you more money in the LR. You're going to get into really tough spots and need to bluff a lot more than is necessary to kill the NL200 games.
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#30
11-12-2005, 08:05 PM
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Re: Maximizing value/Minimizing loss - 200 NL - $400 stacks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You can't raise for value with 85s UTG. That doesn't make any sense. [/ QUOTE ] Can I raise it for value in any position? [/ QUOTE ] Well, I really don't know what you mean by raising for value, but I assume you mean is it +EV. And I think there's lots more solid reasons to raise it with good position--ie- to punish limpers. But, you should be raising lotsa hands as it is and thus your hand range is already large. For this reason, it seems to me that adding 85s into that range does nothing other than hurt you; especially out of position.
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