NHL team to score 1st System - 18/11

[housenuts]

when i saw the matchups i knew there'd be some action for my system tonight.

Blackhawks vs Flames - Team to Score First
Blackhawks +160

Blue Jackets vs Stars - Team to Score First
Blue Jackets +150

Thrashers vs Flyers - Team to Score First
Thrashers +150

YTD Record: 9-4
YTD Total Units: 8.75

[housenuts]

weird. i just did a quick calculation to check out the EV of this bet.

I assumed each bet had a 40% chance of winning. Also for simplicity I assumed they were all +150 rather than the +160 that the Blackhawks game is.

With my numbers the EV came out to exactly 0. At first I thought my formula was wrong but that is not the case. How does this look?

For $100 bets

All win - .4 * .4 * .4 = .064 x $450
All lose - .6 * .6 * .6 = 0.216 x -$300
2 win - .4 * .4 * .6 x 3(ways to happen) = 0.288 x $200
1 win - .4 * .6 * .6 x 3(ways to happen) = .432 x -$50

.064 * 450 + .288 * 200 + .216 * -300 + .432 * -50 = 0

weird eh

i think that's what +150 line is. 40% chance of winning.

[ QUOTE ]
weird. i just did a quick calculation to check out the EV of this bet.

I assumed each bet had a 40% chance of winning. Also for simplicity I assumed they were all +150 rather than the +160 that the Blackhawks game is.

With my numbers the EV came out to exactly 0. At first I thought my formula was wrong but that is not the case. How does this look?

For $100 bets

All win - .4 * .4 * .4 = .064 x $450
All lose - .6 * .6 * .6 = 0.216 x -$300
2 win - .4 * .4 * .6 x 3(ways to happen) = 0.288 x $200
1 win - .4 * .6 * .6 x 3(ways to happen) = .432 x -$50

.064 * 450 + .288 * 200 + .216 * -300 + .432 * -50 = 0

weird eh

[/ QUOTE ]

[housenuts]

[ QUOTE ]
i think that's what +150 line is. 40% chance of winning.


[/ QUOTE ]

lol, that makes alot of sense. i'm retarded.

LOL!

How did the system do tonight?

[housenuts]

[ QUOTE ]
when i saw the matchups i knew there'd be some action for my system tonight.
<font color="red">
Blackhawks vs Flames - Team to Score First
Blackhawks +160

Blue Jackets vs Stars - Team to Score First
Blue Jackets +150

Thrashers vs Flyers - Team to Score First
Thrashers +150</font>

YTD Record: 9-7
YTD Total Units: 5.75

[/ QUOTE ]

yup, that was the worst night so far. it's probably cause you followed my bets. [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

Actually, the "LOL" was for the previous post. I was genuinely asking what the results were because I didn't know. Heh, too much effort for me to check myself. Don't worry, still seems like a winning system. Was just due for a little correction.