1/2 6max. - turned set completes FD

[vanHelsing]

I think my statement of "she's a bit of a calling station" was overvalued by most of the repliers, probably I should have been clearer.
I did not say she is a complete CS. In fact she doesn't call down with TPNK hands no matter what, she just calls more than the typical 2+2-player would. Betting the turn will most probably make her fold any hand we are ahead of, except maybe TPTK or better or a hand containing Qh-Ah.
Turn card is an action killer even for her standards and she might even fold the hands mentioned. TPTK with a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] she might call or might shove, i can't tell. A flush would be definetly a CR all-in from her, where I prolly have to fold.
When I said "a bit tricky", this means she might C/push the turn with pair and draw. She is not capable of pushing the river on air. This push is for value, prolly flush, but who knows her crude standards. With a medium hand she will kind of block river 1/2-1 PSB.

So I see the turn card as an action killer and risk getting outdrawn with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], get some additional money from her on river if I'm ahead and will break her, if she has the flush and river one of 10 FH or better cards.
Does this change things?

[djoyce003]

This river bet reeks of the donkey who missed the checkraise on the turn, now wants to try to make up for it by overbetting the river.

I don't call this bet unless i've seen this person overbet the pot on the river and get caught with a stone bluff. I think she has the flush way too many times to make this a profitable call.

I probably make a bet at the turn here....if I get checkraised I fold unless i'm getting odds to draw at the FH. If they don't checkraise the turn, but call, I check behind on the river if I can.

[emil3000]

FWIW, this is the kind of opponent I assumed when I said I liked the check. Admittedly against an opponent that would call with tpnk, this should be bet. I am still not convinced about this opponent.

Soah, you bet this turn against someone like theworstplayer, who is 25/13 and very tricky? Against a tight unimaginative player?
Would be nice if you countered the arguments made by me and VanHelsing, cause I think they're valid.

A turn bet may have made a river decision easier. I think you have to fold the river.

Well, you seem to have a pretty strong read on villain; so why would she move in against an opponent who's shown extreme weakness on the turn? Wouldn't she be more likely to value bet her flush?

[amoeba]

I like the turn check.

to those that recommend bet, what do you do with AK no heart on the turn? still bet?

do you guys always bet when the flush turns? I think longterm thats a very bad move.

and I fold this river because I think its a missed checkraise.

[emil3000]

Yay, someone who agrees with me!

[djoyce003]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the turn check.

to those that recommend bet, what do you do with AK no heart on the turn? still bet?

do you guys always bet when the flush turns? I think longterm thats a very bad move.

and I fold this river because I think its a missed checkraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the river fold based on how the hand played.

As to when I bet the turn....

I bet the turn here because a King flopped. If no King or Ace had flopped and i got a call on this board, I'd assume it's the flush draw most of the time. But on this board, I'd assume he's got the king before I'd assume he has the flush. I'm betting the turn here because I might be ahead of a king here, but he could have a heart kicker so i'm protecting my hand. I'm also doing it for information though, because unless they are a tricky player, they aren't raising this turn bet without the flush i think....he isn't raising a naked king here....maybe if he has the ace of hearts with their king, but this player isn't that good so I don't think they are that tricky.

[vanHelsing]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm betting the turn here because I might be ahead of a king here, but he could have a heart kicker so i'm protecting my hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
The following is far from accurate, but let's say she has king 1/3 of the time. Let's say she has 1 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in her hand 4/9 of the time and an additional [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] will river 9/44 of the time.
Cobined this is 3%.
3% of the time we are protecting a 55$ pot. Is this really worth giving away substantial equity on a huge pot in case she allready flushed? Not to talk about additional riverequity from a K if no heart rivers.

[BobboFitos]

fold