often missing turn check-raises

[asofel]

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I think 3betting the flop is better here. This guy's stats seem to indicate that he is reasonable passive postflop. I think there are a lot of turn cards that could cause him to check the turn with a lot of the hands he could hold in this spot. Specifically: a K, T, or possibly an ace. A passive player like this might even check if the J or Q pairs. Also, it would not totally surprise me if this guy checked the turn with a weak ace now that it is headsup, or with something like KQ or KJ. I don't think the prospect of getting one additional SB by checkraising the turn offsets these things. Also, since his PFR is 2 it is possible that he could cap the flop with a hand like AQ, AJ, JJ, QQ, or AA and then you could still checkraise the turn.

Also, raise preflop.

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well said, and the part about cards that could kill my action is something I need to consider much more than i do...

thx for the other replies people...