#51
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Re: Should Pedro be thrown into the NL Cy Young Mix?
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[ QUOTE ] You seem unable to accept the fact that pitcher's have VERY LITTLE control over whether or not balls in play turn into hits. They don't. This has been studied countless times. It may be best to include hit rate as a very small element when evaluating a pitcher. Ignoring it completely is much, much better than using something like Bill James' Component ERA (which is basically like FIP, but instead of assuming every pitcher allows the same percentage of hits on balls in play, uses the pitcher's actual hit rate). [/ QUOTE ] The McCracken theory that pitchers don't really affect balls in play was pretty soundly shown to be overstated in this excellent article . Anyone interested in this sort of stuff should read it. I also wanted to say, that when it comes to awards like MVP and Cy Young, we should not care who got lucky/unlucky. If we can prove that some guy who got really unlucky is the best pitcher in the league, we still shouldn't give him the Cy Young. The awards should go to whoever had the best year, not who should have had the best year. You don't give a guy first place in a tourney just because he played best, he actually has to win the thing. [/ QUOTE ] Ok, so Pedro has given up the fewest hits of the three. He should be penalized because of his bullpens inabilty to strand his baserunners? That also is a version of luck. (fwiw, I agree. Hits should be taken into account, although I think they should be put alongside a stat like FIP and used in a subjective manner) |
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