SS2 Phil Hellmuth Story - Page 3

wall_st · #21 02-09-2005, 08:36 PM

One of phil's recent cardplayer articles details this hand.

morello · #22 02-10-2005, 12:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
But, there is 1/1081 chance that hand is out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not with the way the action unfolded. You can't just ignore the action on all streets and say "well, he's only dealt that hand x% of the time."

binions · #23 02-10-2005, 12:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But, there is 1/1081 chance that hand is out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not with the way the action unfolded. You can't just ignore the action on all streets and say "well, he's only dealt that hand x% of the time."

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course. You put him on a range of hands, and weight the range by their likelihood. So, instead of 1 in 1081, it's more like 1 in the 50 hands you think he might have.

Deftoner · #24 02-10-2005, 02:27 AM

Wh should Phil gamble this early on when he knows he's better than most the players in the tournmaent? He wants to play poker, not flip coins for money.

TStoneMBD · #25 02-10-2005, 02:58 AM

the fold is standard.

microbet · #26 02-10-2005, 03:40 AM

PH figures he's behind at the moment and needs to catch his draw. He thinks, what are my chances of winning the tournament if I make this call and what are my chances of winning this tournament if a fold? He decides he has a better chance of winning if he folds.

Beavis68 · #27 02-10-2005, 12:55 PM

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Wh should Phil gamble this early on when he knows he's better than most the players in the tournmaent? He wants to play poker, not flip coins for money.

[/ QUOTE ]

A. He probably doesn't have as big of an advantage as he thinks he does.

B. Tournaments are time contrained and the blinds raise continually.

You need to get the chips when you have the chance.

drewjustdrew · #28 02-10-2005, 01:23 PM

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the fold is standard.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would say it is standard for his playing style.

brokedickrooster · #29 02-10-2005, 02:17 PM

I think a simple way to look at it is this...Even if HALF the deck would give him a winner (which it wouldn't), he is at that point 50-50 to catch. Would you literally flip a coin early in a big tournament to see if you would play on?

swarm · #30 02-10-2005, 03:15 PM

If he had half the cards in the deck he would be over a 50/50 shot, he has two shots at it...

As it was with the amount of outs that he had (17) he was over a 50/50 shot, probably close to 58/42...

What would be curious is to see what he finihsed up in that tourney