The Dangers of a Limit Mentality

[cero_z]

Hi everyone,
Heads up live NL game, blinds are 5-10 with deep stacks (2000 each). Your opponent is aggressive, experienced, tricky, with a fair amount of gamble. Most pots are unraised pre-flop, or the SBB doubles the blind to 20.

SBB limps. You check with Ts6s. Flop is 8s 6h 3s, giving you middle pair with a flush draw. Your opponent bets 20, you call. 2 to the turn with 60 in the pot.

Turn is the 6c, giving you trips--Ten kicker to go along with your flush draw. Your opponent almost instantly goes all-in for 2000, and you have him covered. This is a massive overbet for this game, obviously. Does anyone consider calling here? Or, should I be asking if anyone folds?

[Justin A]

Has your opponent made any overbets like this previously? I would think you have to call here. Would he make this play if he has you beat? If he does have you beat on that board, it would be very strange to go all in, because he'd only get called if you did in fact have a six.

The only hands that beat you at this point are 88, 33, a six with a better kicker, or a six with an 8 or 3. Correct me if I'm wrong about your opponent, but I just can't see a sane player making such a huge overbet with any of these hands, unless of course he somehow knew you had a six.

I'm very interested to hear your thoughts on the hand and how your opponent played it.

Justin A

[cero_z]

Hi Justin,
Ok. This is one of those, "I am actually the 'opponent,' in the hand. I was playing a tight, passive, eminently bluffable opponent. Hand in hand with that, though, is the problem that it's very difficult to get him to committ a lot of chips without a very strong hand. And, he was catching miracle cards all night.

In this hand, though, I had 88, and DIDN'T move all in. He checked, and I checked behind, in order to spring the trap on the river. Alas, another 8 fell, giving me quads but killing my action, and I bet $80, which he paid off after some thought.

It occured to me that even though I didn't know if he had a six, I should've instantly moved in. Because at that point, if he doesn't hold at least trips, I will not be able to get his whole stack on the end, even if he makes a flush. But at that moment, his hand seems so good and disguised to him, that I don't think you could blame him for calling a huge overbet. That's why I posted this: I'm wondering if good players would make this call much. I could see myself making it, especially in the heat of the moment.

The reason I mentioned a "Limit Mentality" is that I think I chose the most likely scenario (he doesn't have much), and slowplayed, as I might in a limit game. What I should have realized is the potential AT THAT MOMENT ONLY to get his entire stack. What a missed opportunity.

What do you guys think?

[cero_z]

Come on, Folks!
One hundred thirteen views of this post, and two replies, 50% of which comes from me? I need help with this hand. Who would fold immediately, and who would just about never fold? Why?

[gomberg]

It would be very difficult to fold here. If I've never seen this type of overbet before, I would like to think I would fold, and would hate it, but would probably do it. In the heat of the moment, I don't know if I'd be able to, though.

I'd be very afraid of a hand like A6 in this spot or a random boat.

After reading the results, I would have overbet the turn w/ 88 and pray he has a 6 and will raise, or won't be able to fold an overpair, or decide you are bluffing and raise you right there. Do you think he would have called the all in? I think in the long run, unless you play an all-in style, you'll make more money by slowplaying or putting out reasonable sized bets in these situations. Of course, this is just based on my gut - and would like to see a more logical argument.

[umdpoker]

I WOULD INSTA-FOLD. that pot is too damn small to risk all my chips with trips shitty kicker. if my opponent wants to do stupid crap like this with a worse hand than mine, i will only have to have to have a monster like 1 in 30 times to make him pay for it. 2000 bet, 60 in pot. nuff said.

[ML4L]

[ QUOTE ]
This is one of those, "I am actually the 'opponent,' in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

That explains the list of positive adjectives describing "opponent..." [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

As for the hand, if I were the real opponent, I would never, ever, ever, ever, ever call a $2000 bet into a $60 pot without a HUGE (read: nuts or near nuts with redraws) hand if the bettor is not a moron and has yet to make that bet. I don't care how tricky/aggressive/etc. he is. Calling there is just stupid against a knowledgeable player. Because with a knowledgeable player, that bet is a MONSTER hand more often than not.

That having been said, you CLEARLY bet the turn here, unless you are trying to get a hyperaggressive player to bet, after which you can check-raise and start a shootout. Against a passive player, you always bet. Especially because you should be bullying him, so you need to play your good hands aggressively to keep him from playing back eventually.

ML4L

[toby]

I would call any reasonably large bet up to a couple times the pot size, but when someone bets 2000 into a $60 pot I would only call with the nuts just because as Doyle Brunson states in his book it makes no sense to lose all your chips in an unraised pot. You risk nothing by folding here.

[cero_z]

Hi ML4L et al,
This is the type of feedback I'm talking about. Thanks for your input.

As for betting the turn, you're obviously right. I had put him on a flush draw, and it was uncommon for him to have made a hand as big as trips without me knowing it. I'm sure it was obvious; somehow I missed it. Since he's the cautious-to-a-fault-type player, I expected him to fold a flush draw if I bet there. I was looking to have him make a flush, and check-raise me with it, or bet about 80 into me. When he missed (I thought), I went for a slight overbet, hoping to look enough like a bluff that he'd call with A high on the 2-pair board.

As for the following,
[ QUOTE ]
That explains the list of positive adjectives describing "opponent..."

[/ QUOTE ]
hahaha. This was my perception of HIS perception of me.

And, I agree with your point about bullying with good and bad hands, but since he virtually never played back, I didn't want to waste a big hand. My bad.

[Justin A]

Cero,
I like your thinking here. I've thought alot about overbets in situations when I have the near nuts because it doesn't look like a great hand. That being said, going all in here is just way too big of a bet. I think your working too hard to take his entire stack in this hand, when it may be better to settle for a couple or three hundred of it. If you did know he had a six, a bet of $150 or so may get him to raise you, and then you have him trapped. I honestly don't think pushing $2000 into a $60 pot is ever a good play.

I think you're right that the turn is the best time to get his money, but a huge all in overbet is not the way to do it. Think what happens if you check the turn. You got unlucky that an 8 fell and killed your action, but lets say a brick falls. Opponent will bet out, you'll raise him, and he'll either call or fold depending on the size of your raise. If you bet the turn, he has a chance to check-raise you, and you can either pop him back right there, or call and spring your trap on the river. I think either way makes more money than checking the turn.

Supposing he is just on a flush draw, the turn is still the best time to get his money. If you think he is on a draw, make a bet that you think he'll call, even if it's only 1/3 or 1/2 the pot. If a blank hits you wouldn't have gotten his money anyway, and if he does hit his flush, then the pot will be bigger and you'll probably be able to extract more out of him.

Justin A