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AQ - too tight?
$20/$40 at the Horseshoe in Tunica, MS.
I've been playing for about an hour, and the only three hands I've had to show down happened to be AA, AA, and a 37o that I flopped trip 3's with in an unraised Big Blind, so I'm getting some ribbing from the table for being a bit of a tight-a**... After this hand, I think they may have been right. Three people limp, and I call along with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] - this is probably mistake number one. Small blind completes, Big blind checks, and six of us see the flop with 6 SB in the pot. flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] both blinds and the first limper check, the next guy bets. I'm already concerned, because this guy has played very few hands, very tightly - only betting with hands that were *very* likely to be the best, or with very large draws. I put the most likely set of hands that he might have limped with pre-flop, but would bet here, as: {AK, AQ, AJ, JJ, ATs, K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]}. Against this set of hands, I believe I am already a slight underdog, but with the $120 already in the pot, and the fact that any other reasonable hands added to the set of hands above (KJ other than K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], for example) are also hands I can beat, I was planning to raise. Until the guy between us raised. This guy was not a maniac, but was playing a lot more hands a lot more aggressively than the first raiser. In addition to the hands I put the first bettor on, I would easily add any suited ace (including A4...), any KJ, any QJ, any club draw, 44, to the hands that he would have called with pre-flop and raised here. I thought about it for a minute, and decided that while I was probably pretty close to even against the first raiser, and getting a nice overlay, and I was probably even more likely to be ahead of the raiser, I was definitely not the favorite against both of them. I knew that I couldn't call, because then I was making it right for the first bettor to call me with any Jack, any Gut-shot, or any Ace, so I had to raise or fold, and if I got re-raised here I had to be prepared to dump the hand on the turn unless I spiked a non- [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q. So, I let the hand go. I felt really good about this decision at the time, but it's been tormenting me ever since. I think that I let the hand go not necessarily because I knew that a raise was -EV, but because I couldn't see an easy, warm-fuzzy way to play it from the turn on, and I was going to be angry with myself if I raised only to find out I was drawing near-dead to JJ, AK, or AJ in one spot, and against clubs in the other. So, I guess my question for the forum is - given the pre-flop call instead of a raise, which I'm certain was a mistake, is the play on the flop close between a raise and a fold, or is one clearly right against the kind of opponents I have described? can anyone justify a call? thanks! |
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