Continuation bet - how far?

Continuation bets.

When revueing my hands I find this is where a lot of my money goes.

Three situations, I find myself in A LOT.
How far do you take it. Assume you're at a LPP table.

1. Hero had AQs in CO. 2 limpers, Hero raises, 3 callers.
Flop. K,7,2r
3 checks, Hero bets, 3 callers.
Turn. T.
3 checks. Hero bets. 2 callers.
River. 4.
2 checks. Hero?

2. Hero has AK in UTG+1. Hero raises. CO calls. Blinds complete.
Flop. Q,7,2r.
BB bets. Hero raises. CO calls. SB folds. BB calls.
Turn.
BB checks. Hero?

3. Hero has TT in CO. MP1 limps.Folds.Hero raises. BB, MP1 call.
Flop. K,7,4r
2 checks. Hero bets. 2 calls.
Turn. J.
2 checks. Hero?

Continuation bets start to make me wretch when you're not catching cards. Especially when you're not catching cards and people keep looking you up because of it. Do you just keep donking away?

It's generally pretty easy when you hit your hand. These situations when you don't hit your hand happen often and seem to be where most of my money goes. Suggestions?

[GrunchCan]

linky

In short: bluffing in to a multiway pot is a bad idea. I think this is especially true in limit. Understand that the bet you are talking about (when you missed the flop completely) is a bluff.

[WalkAmongUs]

If its a passive game against multiple callers and you are in late position go ahead and check and take any free cards offered.

I might venture a bet against 2 passive opponents...but if I'm called and don't improve I'll check it down and fold to a bet.

[deception5]

Hand 1: check behind on the turn. You picked up a gutshot and this board is as drawless as they get. You are very likely to be up against a made hand here. Try to hit and fold the river if you miss.

Hand 2: Call or fold the flop. I prefer folding. BB bet into 2 players on a drawless board - call if you want to try and hit your A/K, but you have to fold the turn unimproved.

Hand 3: Here I bet again. You have a made hand which is unlikely to improve. You'll get some value when someone calls you down with a worse pair. It's much better to bet the turn here and fold the river unimproved or check behind. If, after betting, you get check/raised on the turn or bet into on the river, you should usually fold.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Understand that the bet you are talking about (when you missed the flop completely) is a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is quite true. These boards are very unlikely to have hit anyone. Betting with AQ on a K72 board is very often a value bet with the best hand and also hand protection (we'd love to fold A2/Q2/33/etc).

[Absolution]

I think the situations he outlined are particularly bad because he has so few outs. With 2 overs and/or good draw possibilities I would continue betting into 2 opponents. The TT hand is the only one that looks promising. You could be ahead quite a bit there. Really though, you should just take advantage of your passive opponents here. They let you get away from hands easily and also give you lots of free cards. Just take them.

[ QUOTE ]
linky

In short: bluffing in to a multiway pot is a bad idea. I think this is especially true in limit. Understand that the bet you are talking about (when you missed the flop completely) is a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the link. 2 questions.
How often would you continuation bet with overcards on a raggedy board when you were the PFR?
How much do you think fold equity increases when you are the PFR? (I always find myself using this as justification for a CB every time)

[Absolution]

His link seems to answer that. You can't really think about it independently. If you raise, the pot is bigger so they will call more, especially at this level. They might not even notice. How multiway is it? How many times have you made continuation bluffs in the past that ended up getting called down (or you ended up folding to aggression)?

I still think failed continuation bets are the one read that even weak players notice. If they weren't calling stations before they saw you lose with AK in a showdown to bottom pair, they probably will be after.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
How often would you continuation bet with overcards on a raggedy board when you were the PFR?

[/ QUOTE ]

Every time it's +EV to do so.

I know that's kind of a non-answer on par with "it depends," but that's the answer. It's not helpful to know that I tend to CB ~95% of the time in HU situations, ~50% of the time against 2 opponents, and infrequently against 3 or more opponents. That's not what you need to know. What you need to know is the purpose of your bet and the chance that it will succeed in order to estimate the EV of running a CB. EV is all that matters.

People who said that the hand 1 bet is not 100% bluff are correct; it is in fact a semi-bluff with a small value component. But I think it's not unlikely that someone hit the K, and I think it's also not unlikely that someone with just one small pair is set on showing thier hand down. Also, there's less "semi" in your semibluff, since you're often drawing only to an ace, sometimes to a Q also, and you could even be in a reverse-domination nightmare. In hand 1, of "semi", "bluff", and "value", I think "bluff" is the biggest component. It's certianly the most, erm... certian.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
I still think failed continuation bets are the one read that even weak players notice.

[/ QUOTE ]

That could be true. It might be becasue continuation bets -- +EV ones and -EV ones -- are one of the most common moves on the flop in low-limit HE. Your opponents have seen a million of them.