Crazy thing I almost never do against a LAP

[zimmer879]

As long as you're very confident in your read, I see nothing wrong with your line. You save a bet when behind and gain a bet when ahead, because he would likely check behind either the turn or the river. As a default c/c is the way to go though.

[ggbman]

[ QUOTE ]
As long as you're very confident in your read, I see nothing wrong with your line. You save a bet when behind and gain a bet when ahead, because he would likely check behind either the turn or the river. As a default c/c is the way to go though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the mere fact that no player is 100% predictable really means we want to show this down, the pot is already reasonably big, it's more important to get to showdown than to try to get him to call down with a worse hand IMO.

[arkady]

You know you just basically echoed what most of the forum thinks and does. No one cares about saving bets or making specific plays, everyone just makes sweeping general statements. ggman, you can at least pay attention to the HH before posting advice - I can't value bet the river if he checks behind since I am out of position.

Pot is big, must call.
Hand is good, must showdown.
Etc. Etc.

I don't want to showdown, thats the whole point of betting and planning to fold to a raise. To eliminate the showdown and try to save a BB. Is it right, I don't know? But I am trying to distinguish situations that don't require an automated response and maybe should be played differentely than what the norm suggests. Everyone has been so engineered to think a certain way that exploring any option that seems to clash with the norm is being met with feverish resistance.

So, on one hand I am angered by the close minded responses on the other hand I am instilled with uncertainty, as I don't have any other solid proof as to why this may be a good move.

I just know that this type of robotic thinking cannot possibly be sufficient if one plans to tackle the higher limits of poker.

[wackjob]

I hate bet & fold unless you are on a pure bluff. Other than that every possible way to play this hand has been addressed.

[AlwaysWrong]

You played this right on the turn. It's not all that close imo. To get to showdown you need to pay 2 big bets to win 10 big bets. You're getting 5-1 so you need to be winning here like 18% of the time. There's no chance you're winning 18% of the time. Case closed.

My question is why didn't you bet out on the flop?

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
You played this right on the turn. It's not all that close imo. To get to showdown you need to pay 2 big bets to win 10 big bets. You're getting 5-1 so you need to be winning here like 18% of the time. There's no chance you're winning 18% of the time. Case closed.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are at least 8 options.

1) We checkcall turn and river: Cost 2BB.
2) We checkcall turn and get free showdown.
3) We bet turn and are raised by a hand we cant beat and fold: Cost 1BB.
4) We bet turn and are raised by a hand that we can draw out on and fold: Cost 1BB.
5) We bet turn and are raised by a hand that we beat and we fold: Cost 1BB.
6) We bet turn and are called by better hand: Cost: ?
7) We bet turn and are called by worse hand: Cost ?
8) We checkfold turn.

You are saying there is no chance we will win 18% at river if we checkcall turn and river (1). Thats true. But this is only interesteing if we are check-folding turn (8). And that isnt our preferd option, is it? Our Hero did (3)-(7). Im to lazy to play around with figures, estimating each altearnative, but (3) and (7) has to happen a really high % of the time to make this a good play.

[paco]

[ QUOTE ]
You played this right on the turn. It's not all that close imo. To get to showdown you need to pay 2 big bets to win 10 big bets. You're getting 5-1 so you need to be winning here like 18% of the time. There's no chance you're winning 18% of the time. Case closed.

[/ QUOTE ]

CAse isn't closed becasue, a different line would have him c/c the turn and bet the river--whole different line, amt of bets, are reaction from opponent.

[ggbman]

[ QUOTE ]
ggman, you can at least pay attention to the HH before posting advice - I can't value bet the river if he checks behind since I am out of position.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get it? If he check behind the turn, value bet the river? I don't see how being OOP has anything to do with it?


[ QUOTE ]
I don't want to showdown, thats the whole point of betting and planning to fold to a raise. To eliminate the showdown and try to save a BB. Is it right, I don't know? But I am trying to distinguish situations that don't require an automated response and maybe should be played differentely than what the norm suggests. Everyone has been so engineered to think a certain way that exploring any option that seems to clash with the norm is being met with feverish resistance.

[/ QUOTE ]


I respect this. The thing is, in my opinion, this is not a case to deviate from the norm. Look at the title of your post. "Something i hardly ever do..." What if your opponent does somethnig he hardly ever does and raises this turn with a worse hand?

Poker players are not always predicable, i've seen guys with% VPIPs in full rings game of 96 suited and put in a gajillion bets with no hand/no draw on the flop. Given the tendancy of players to not always do the same thing, when you have a medium/strong hand in a big pot, i think you always want to show it down.

Kiddo's post was very good, and it's not that i don't understand or agree with what he is saying, i just don't think this is a spot for it. Also, i truley am baffled as to the comment about the HH, so maybe you can tell me what if anything i am missing there. I was a lot of people of people just basically say "this line sucks." I actually attempted to give an analysis of why i don't like and what i would do, and yet you singled out my post. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[arkady]

I am more content with the discussion that transpired today, even if the majority think I am wrong. I only singled you out, because I had to respond to someone - don't take offense.

I misunderstood what you mean by the check, but someone that tight preflop will be betting the turn with anything, even JJ. A check on the turn would then make it very difficult for me as I would be tempted to simply call.

To address Guy, I think a donkbet on the river is the worst option of all. If he has as strong a hand as I suspect he does, I will get raised, be forced to fold and sit there wondering why didnt I just call. Against this sort of player I would never donkbet the river - suicide, as he will go into call down mode with a worse hand right on the turn.

For the others who say, I have seen too much crazy [censored] from "passive players". Well, I got quite a bit of hands logged in the past few months, believe me I know what you mean. Sometimes I just want to toss gametime into the trash, because it has mislead and confused me. Of course no one is 100% certain about anything, otherwise 2+2 would not exist. If we could all get certain decisions, poker would be formulaic and not be poker. However we need to strive to pick out situations which do not resemble a typical scenario and see if we can win or save 1bb more. As Kiddo correctly pointed out, this will be the difference in earn and that is what everyone on this board is trying to achieve.

I know I am defending my position, I sort of have to, but by no means am I actually convinced that it is the right move. Hence I brought it out for discussion...I am now trying to determine if there can be a more meaningful gauging system to quantify how successful these moves are. Currently, my only solution is to leave party and find a smaller site where I can form closer to 100% reads. That way these kind of decisions will not leave me second guessing myself.

Anyway, good thread and I liked the input from everyone.

[AlwaysWrong]

I think an important thing here is that your line can be correct even if it's possible that you were winning here and folded the best hand. Yes, sometimes crazy things happen and the guy who never bluffs bluffs but poker is all about odds, not about 100% certainty. If he only bluffs here 1 time in 20 or 1 time in 10, that's fine you can still fold and it either still saves you money or costs you very little.