KK 15-30 against a UTG limp-raiser

[Miah]

Before I post the hand I'll mention that I won the blinds for the last hand open raising from MP with A9o. I didn't show my cards. No reads on any of the players yet.

I have K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] from MP. UTG limps, I raise, SB calls, UTG 3 bets, I cap, both call. 13 SB in the pot.

7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB checks, UTG checks, I bet, SB calls, UTG raises, I 3-bet, SB folds, UTG caps. 11 BB in the pot

7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]

UTG bets, I raise, UTG calls. 15 BB's in pot

7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]

UTG checks, I bet, UTG calls.

Results to follow

[Nightwish]

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Results to follow


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Well, the result is that you won the hand, but that's not the point.

If you don't have any read on UTG, how sure are you that you have the best hand and are not drawing to 2 outs on the turn? There are many maniacs on Party, and there are many people who will limp re-raise with middle pocket pairs, but I would proceed a little bit more carefully unless I had some info on this guy. Specifically, here are the hands that beat you:

AA 6 hands
QQ 3 hands
99 3 hands
77 3 hands
-----------
15 hands

Here's what you beat:

JJ 6 hands
TT 6 hands
88 6 hands
AQ 12 hands
-----------
30 hands

It's tough to do a complete analysis (because you have slim redraws against each other, and because AA will not reraise even though he has you beat and doesn't know it), but my guess is that your turn raise is roughly zero EV, but contributes quite a bit to your variance.

Of course, I assumed that JJ/TT/88 will cap the flop and lead out on the turn, which is perhaps a bit too optimistic, even for Party. If we throw out those hands, your turn raise becomes very -EV.

[Nate tha' Great]

Well, I certainly think it's good that you don't automatically give him credit for a big hand just because he limp re-raised. On the other hand, the table appears to be tight, which might make him more inclined to "legitimiately" limp-reraise with a big hand.

Then he check-raises the flop for value, after you've already shown a hell of a lot of strength. That check-raise is a tip-off; if he'd limp re-raised with something cooky, I think he's more likely to come out firing. At that point I have to figure that I'm behind or tied a large percentage of the time. He might occasionally have AQs (3 ways), but you're way behind 6 combinations of AA and 3 combinations of QQ. My objective at that point is to get to a showdown for as few bets as possible. Three-betting the flop *might* be okay, but raising again on the turn is flat out reckless; it looks like he slowed down with his AA only because he feared QQ.

You gave too much action here.

[steveyz]

I'd just call the turn here. It certainly looks like you rivered AA

[Garland]

I think you got lucky on the river because he has AA.

I think you need to take care after the flop. Your aggression is fine up to your 3-bet of the flop, and even slowing down when he check-raises you on the flop may be prudent.

The reason why your opponent slowed down on the turn is because he genuinely fears you have QQ.

The river plays itself, but if you didn't get the K, I would check behind because you've almost certainly lost without hitting your set.

Garland

[El Dukie]

After the limp-raiser caps the flop, I'd probably go into call-down mode if I didn't improve. Definitely looks like AA. QQ would (should) have 3-bet the turn if he had it, so I don't think he's got the set. If you just call on the turn, you might get to raise the river when you hit your K, so I think you would have won the same amount either way -- and if the K doesn't hit, you save a bet by calling him down.

[elysium]

hi miah

played perfectly....whew, what perfect play miah. hard to tell who wins here. post it please.

[Miah]

Thanks for the replies and thoughts. UTG did in fact have AA and I caught a lucky river.

[bicyclekick]

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Thanks for the replies and thoughts. UTG did in fact have AA and I caught a lucky river.

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You don't say.