formula for calling bets based on outs

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]

Im trying to make a bet that results in the bet being the identical % of the resultant pot (with n callers) to the % chance of me hitting my outs on the next card.


[/ QUOTE ]

so you want:

chance of hitting = bet / pot + bet

which is

bet = chance * pot / (1-chance)

so if you have a .25 chance of hitting in a 10 bet pot

bet = .25 * 10 / .75

bet = 3.333


there's 10 in the pot, you bet 3.3333 your opponent calls the pot is now 13.33333. 3.3333 = 13.33333*.25

[shday]

ok, if you want to factor in the number of callers:

bet = chance*pot/(1 - chance(1 + callers))

obviously, if there are no callers this reduces to the previous equation.

[imported_bingobazza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Im trying to make a bet that results in the bet being the identical % of the resultant pot (with n callers) to the % chance of me hitting my outs on the next card.


[/ QUOTE ]

so you want:

chance of hitting = bet / pot + bet

which is

bet = chance * pot / (1-chance)

so if you have a .25 chance of hitting in a 10 bet pot

bet = .25 * 10 / .75

bet = 3.333


there's 10 in the pot, you bet 3.3333 your opponent calls the pot is now 13.33333. 3.3333 = 13.33333*.25

[/ QUOTE ]

If I bet 3.3333 into a 10 pot, and the op calls, theres 16.6666666 in the pot....

Bingo

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]

If I bet 3.3333 into a 10 pot, and the op calls, theres 16.6666666 in the pot....
Bingo

[/ QUOTE ]

are you sure you want to be counting your own bet??

[imported_bingobazza]

I take your point, but yes, I do want to count my bet, as well as their call(s). Its not my money once its gone into the pot. Lets say I have a 25% chance to hit my outs on the turn. Clearly, in a $100 pot, having a maximum bet parameter of 25% of 100 (pot) or 125 (pot plus my bet) is incorrect if there is a caller. It should be higher to account for the call, and probably even higher than that if fold equity is considered...but we'll ignore that for now. I appreciate your input here.

Bingo

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
I take your point, but yes, I do want to count my bet, as well as their call(s). Its not my money once its gone into the pot. Lets say I have a 25% chance to hit my outs on the turn. Clearly, in a $100 pot, having a maximum bet parameter of 25% of 100 (pot) or 125 (pot plus my bet) is incorrect if there is a caller. It should be higher to account for the call, and probably even higher than that if fold equity is considered...but we'll ignore that for now. I appreciate your input here.

Bingo

[/ QUOTE ]

well you sorta lost me there, but if that's what you want...

chance of hitting = bet / (pot + 2*bet)

which is

bet = (pot * chance)/(1-2*chance)

so if you have a .25 chance of hitting in a 10 bet pot

bet = .25 * 10 / .5

bet = 5

there's 10 in the pot, you bet 5 your opponent calls the pot is now 20. 5 = .25 * 20


do yourself a favor and do some EV calculations on this system before you put it to work.

[imported_bingobazza]

Yip, I hit that one too....but it breaks down >50% chance.

Bingo

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
Yip, I hit that one too....but it breaks down >50% chance.

Bingo

[/ QUOTE ]

yes it does. do you see why?


how could your bet ever be over half the pot with an opponent matching you dollar for dollar, and existing dead money in the pot?

[imported_bingobazza]

Ofcourse!!!!! thanks jba, couldnt see the wood for the trees. I appreciate all your help on this one. Have another think about the EV and PM me if you like.

Bingo