Question about downswings.

David04 · #1 08-12-2005, 09:46 PM

I have yet to experience a painfully long downswing or breakeven period. Partially because I do not play very many hands, partially because I have played nano-limits until recently(.01/.02, .02/.04, .05/.10)

Obviously, if your skill is far greater than that of your average opponent, downswings will be less frequent and shorter in length(at least that seems logical, please correct me if I'm wrong)

At the nano-limits, players are terrible, it is easy to crush these games, therefore, a good player's edge is huge and downswings will occur less frequently.

At the "Big Game", I would have to imagine that a player's edge is very small over anyone else, thus creating a small winrate and the potential for frequent and/or long downswings.

So, on to my question. I play .50/1 at the moment. Assume that I am an average winning player, average winrate, decent stats. What kind of downswings are probably at .50/1? I am trying to increase my poker playing, but I want to know what I am getting into first.

Thanks.

jaxUp · #2 08-12-2005, 09:47 PM

I think my largest was 150BB, though I don't remember over what time period. At 2/4 it was 250BB over about 3500 hands

Eeegah · #3 08-12-2005, 09:50 PM

gg 1000th post.

"Average winning player" seems like an oxymoron, as does "Average winrate." You need to figure out what you mean by that, and from there you could probably just use the streaks.xls that floats around (lemme know if you need a link) to give yourself a general idea.

hemstock · #4 08-12-2005, 09:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think my largest was 150BB, though I don't remember over what time period. At 2/4 it was 250BB over about 3500 hands

[/ QUOTE ]

Full ring or shorthanded?

ThaHero · #5 08-12-2005, 09:51 PM

I had a 150BB downswing at 25./.50 on Stars. Got cold cards, and after losing money, it affected my play as well. It was my first big downswing.

At .50/1 I would expect normal downswings to occur(assuming an average winning player). No matter where you are you will get downswings, so just try to prepare mentally as best you can.

NateDog · #6 08-12-2005, 09:52 PM

110BB over like 400 hands at .5/1.
Currently leveling off at 60BB swing at 1/2 over a similar sample size, but i'm not all that good at poker. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

jaxUp · #7 08-12-2005, 09:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think my largest was 150BB, though I don't remember over what time period. At 2/4 it was 250BB over about 3500 hands

[/ QUOTE ]

Full ring or shorthanded?

[/ QUOTE ]

full ring. Amplified by my loss of confidence in the last half of the downswing

David04 · #8 08-12-2005, 10:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
gg 1000th post.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks.

As for the winrate, assume something like 3BB/100. I do not have a significant sample size to find my own winrate, but I can't imagine that 3BB/100 can be too far from an average winrate for .50/1. Also, I would be interested in the "streaks.xls" but I do not have Excel. Thanks anyways.

hemstock · #9 08-12-2005, 10:07 PM

So thats why we use the 300xBB rule?
Cause downswings cannot get THAT big?

DCWildcat · #10 08-12-2005, 10:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So thats why we use the 300xBB rule?
Cause downswings cannot get THAT big?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, it happens like 1% of the time for a 2BB/100 winner I think

my biggest is 170BB over only 700 (bad, bad night). your style of play will affect it too--looser plays might see a little more