I'm lost on this hand...

[Felipe]

Street by street. The players behind me are very loose stations. Autorated as 'fish'. 'UTG' seemed to be a 'bet into a preflop raiser just to see what he does' type. Not very aggressive though. No read on MP.

UTG calls, 2 folds, MP calls, I raise with BlackJack A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 1 fold, button CC2, SB folds, BB calls - rest call.

FLOP 10 small bets

[A K Q]r

UTG bets out, MP calls *freeze*

<font color="blue">Here Im' thinking, The board is drawy, and the turn card can significantly change the equity of my hand (any 9,J,T,K,Q all hurt me). Calling might induce someone to bet into me on the turn. If a safe cards turns, I can raise the bet - forcing them to call 2 cold on the big betting rounds. I decided agianst it, however, b/c They will all have good odds to chase gutshots (any one holding a T or J), and low pairs drawing to pair their kickers. If I raise now, I face the field with calling 2 cold now. The pot is not VERY big, but big enough to protect. Since they will call my raise (they are stations) they might as well call 2, I lower their odds (it drops them to 14:2 = 7:1) and encourage them to make bad calls or good folds (or bad folds, if they knew what I had, and they were getting 7:1 to draw to their kicker. But we aren't two handed, so that changes things...another story)</font>

...I raise, and e.one calls.

TURN 10 Big Bets
A K Q [K]r

UTG bets again (!), MP calls *freeze*

<font color="blue">I have to raise here. The probabilites that some one has a king are reduced, however, UTG could be betting his trips or boat for value. I think calling would be weak.</font>

..I raise - UTG folds (!) - and all call again (!)

<font color="blue">I feel I'm getting reeeeeled in........</font>

RIVER ~18BB

A K Q K [Q]r

Now the small blind bets, mp folds

[color=blue] Am I truely beat here ~95% of the time? Probably</font>

..dumbass (me) calls, button calls.






How'd I do? What went wrong? What went right?

[Felipe]

too hard on the eyes or something?

[deception5]

First off I would just point out that a T/9 do not hurt you. A T gives you the nuts although you may be splitting. A 9 doesn't make a straight for someone who doesn't already have one. That leaves K/Q/J (and a jack may not be a bad card if you are against KQ, but I wouldn't exactly be happy to see it!).

Your plan to wait for the turn is probably fine (I don't really mind a flop raise either because I don't think your equity is changing drastically), but when the K comes, realize that the best you can do without improving is split against another ace. So at this point I wouldn't bother raising. Calling the river is probably fine.