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  #1  
Old 08-29-2005, 10:51 AM
NickPoker NickPoker is offline
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Posts: 63
Default $1-$2 Nut draw on Flop after preflop reraise

Game:
Ultimate Bet $1-2 NL 6-Max
6 Players

Hero has everyone covered
SB $86
Other players insignificant

UTG Folds
UTG +1 Limps
C/O Limps
Hero A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the button raises to $10
SB reraises to $22
U+G and c/of fold
Hero calls
Pot = $50 - rake

At this point I put the SB on a big pair or maybe AK, probably AA-JJ, leaning towards KK or maybe AK (because I have an A and a Q, and is somewhat aggressive for JJ OOP). As far as reads go, this guy just joined the game.

Flop J95 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
SB goes all in for $64
You have Nut flush draw and with strong potential your A is an out.
Range of hands at this point is AA-JJ or AxK [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or he is on a move (doubt it). I lean towards him having KK.

Call or Fold. I think this is close, it probably comes down to how you weight his potential range of hands.
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  #2  
Old 08-29-2005, 11:54 AM
The_Missile The_Missile is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 101
Default Re: $1-$2 Nut draw on Flop after preflop reraise

I would think that he has QQ or KK. He probably read your raise pre-flop as an AJ-AK raise, and wanted to make sure his QQ/KK took down the pot right there. He might have even folded to a raise over the top. But anyway, to thge flop.

If you truly think your A could be an out, then I think you should call. The nut flush draw takes care of QQ/KK, and so would an A. So if you don't put him on a set or a bizarrely played bluff attempt that yielded 2-pair, calling sounds like a very viable option.

The pot is
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  #3  
Old 08-29-2005, 12:37 PM
Riposte Riposte is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 142
Default Re: $1-$2 Nut draw on Flop after preflop reraise

$64 call to win a $114 pot.

If your Ace outs are clean, then you beat KK, QQ, JJ.
If your Ace outs are dirty, then you lose to AA, AK.

The all-in looks like a King-high flush or AA-JJ.
Let's say we have approximately 10 outs to win... 9 for the flush and about 1 for an Ace out being clean.
10 outs makes a hand by the river ~38% of the time.

EV = -64BB(.62) + 114BB(.38) = -39.68 + 43.32 = 3.64BB

So call.

I have no idea if I did this correctly. Did I?
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  #4  
Old 08-29-2005, 01:14 PM
LetYouDown LetYouDown is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Sharing a smoke w/negativity
Posts: 524
Default Re: $1-$2 Nut draw on Flop after preflop reraise

3 ways he can have J-J, 3 ways he can have A-A, 6 ways he can have K-K, 3 ways he can have Q-Q. If you're comfortable with a K-K read, it's a call. The pot is offering you 1.78 to 1...I call here.
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